中國需求下滑對不同國家的衝擊
How do you gauge a commodity exporter’s exposure to China? It sounds simple: the greater the share of commodities in a country’s exports, and the more those exports go to China, the greater the threat posed by China’s slowing economy and Beijing’s efforts to divert it from industrial investment to private consumption.
如何衡量一個大宗商品出口國受中國影響的程度？聽起來很簡單：一個國家出口額中大宗商品佔比越大，其大宗商品對華出口的越多，則中國經濟放緩及轉型——中國政府力圖將主要經濟增長動力從工業投資轉向私人消費——對該國的威脅就越大。
But some commodity countries, even those dependent on Chinese demand, are faring better than others. In its sovereign credit outlook for 2016, Moody’s Investors Service, one of the three big global credit rating agencies, set out to identify the emerging market governments whose creditworthiness is most in jeopardy.
但是，一些大宗商品國家、甚至那些依賴於中國需求的國家，當前處境卻好於其他一些國家。全球三大信用評級機構之一——穆迪投資者服務(Moody's Investors Service)在2016年主權信用展望中，試圖分析哪些新興市場政府的信用面臨着最大風險。
According to Moody’s, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will include the most countries at risk. Mongolia and Angola are at the top of its list.
據穆迪表示，有這種風險的國家在亞洲和撒哈拉以南非洲地區最多。蒙古和安哥拉的風險最大。
Governments that are on track with structural reforms designed to diversify their economies and strengthen their fiscal positions will be better able to ride out China’s falling demand and the associated plunge in commodity prices, says Moody’s.
穆迪稱，有些國家的政府正在實施促進經濟多元化、加強財政狀況的結構性改革，這些國家可以更好地經受住中國需求下滑以及相應的大宗商品價格暴跌的衝擊。
However, other analysts note that even governments that have cleaned up their own balance sheets may be at risk from a private sector exposed to the double whammy of commodities and China. Fitch Ratings this week joined those warning that private sector debt presents a threat to the creditworthiness of many EM sovereign issuers.
然而，其他分析師指出，即使是那些已經清理了自身資產負債表的政府，或許也會因爲私營部門面臨大宗商品和中國因素雙重打擊而處於風險之中。本週，惠譽評級(Fitch Ratings)也發出了警告，稱私營部門的債務對很多新興市場主權債券發行方的信用構成威脅。
China’s appetite for goods produced in other countries is falling fast. In November, its imports were down nearly 19 per cent from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs.
中國對其他國家所產商品的需求正在迅速下滑。中國海關總署(General Administration of Customs)的數據顯示，11月，中國進口額同比下滑將近19%。
Mongolia’s exposure to this fall is stark. China takes 95 per cent of its exports, of which 83 per cent are commodities.
中國需求下滑對蒙古的影響是顯而易見的。中國佔蒙古出口額的95%，其中83%爲大宗商品。
What is more, its defences are meagre. The government’s budget deficit has doubled this year and external debt is ballooning. The private sector is highly leveraged — corporate debt was equal to 85 per cent of gross domestic product in 2012. With export earnings falling, those debts will come under increasing strain. The state will be in little condition to help.
更重要的是，蒙古的防禦能力薄弱。蒙古政府今年的預算赤字增加了一倍，同時外債不斷膨脹。私營部門的槓桿率極高——2012年企業債務相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的85%。在出口收入下滑的情況下，這些債務將承受越來越大的壓力。政府基本上也無能爲力。
Mongolia’s plight is mirrored in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where export dependence on China is at its highest in some of the most troubled, least developed and least diversified economies in the region.
蒙古的困境在撒哈拉以南非洲的部分國家也可以看到。該地區一些最動盪、最欠發達、多元化程度最低的經濟體對中國進口的依賴性是最高的。
“Sub-Saharan countries have little scope to reorient their exports to other destinations given subdued global growth prospects,” notes Moody’s.
“鑑於全球增長前景低迷，撒哈拉以南非洲國家幾乎沒有調整出口目的地的餘地，”穆迪稱。
China’s rapid entry into the region during the past decade was in part facilitated by the willingness of Chinese businesses and banks to go where others would not. Now, this could prove a double-edged sword.
過去十年，中國快速進入該地區，部分是得益於中國企業和銀行願意去別人不願去的地方。如今，這一點或被證實是一把雙刃劍。
Angola is a textbook case of the woes that await an economy that fails to diversify during its boom years. GDP growth peaked at 22.6 per cent in 2007, as Chinese demand rose to consume 50 per cent of all the oil from Africa’s second-largest oil producer.
安哥拉是經濟體因在繁榮時期未能實現多元化而面臨困境的典型案例。2007年，中國需求消耗了這個非洲第二大產油國50%的石油，安哥拉的GDP增長率達到22.6%的峯值。
Oil is Angola’s only export to China, and the oil sector provides 90 per cent of government revenues. As the oil price plunged, Angola’s currency went with it, falling more than 25 per cent against the dollar since October 2014.
石油是安哥拉唯一對中國出口的產品，該國90%的政府收入來自石油業。安哥拉的貨幣隨着油價大跌而大幅貶值，自2014年10月以來兌美元匯率下跌超過25%。
The politically troubled Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Republic of Congo are similarly exposed. The former is a major exporter of copper to China, while the latter pumps oil. Neither has developed significant economic sectors beyond extractives.
陷入政治困局的剛果民主共和國和鄰國剛果共和國受中國的影響差不多。前者是向中國出口銅的主要國家，後者向中國出口石油。兩個國家都沒有發展出採掘以外的重要經濟產業。
Others, though, have managed to diversify. Ethiopia is a significant exporter of food commodities to China, but as one among many export destinations. Its semi-authoritarian government has built up a fledgling industrial base while investing heavily in agriculture. “Ethiopia should be more resilient than other commodity-exporting countries,” says Sarah Baynton-Glen, Africa economist at Standard Chartered.
不過，其他國家已實現了經濟多元化。埃塞俄比亞是向中國出口糧食大宗商品的主要國家，但中國只是其許多重要的出口目的地之一。該國的半威權政府已建立了初步的工業基礎，並大力投資農業。“埃塞俄比亞應該比其他大宗商品出口國更能抵禦衝擊，”渣打(Standard Chartered)非洲經濟學家薩拉貝恩頓-格倫(Sarah Baynton-Glen)表示。
