IMF年會瀰漫陰鬱氣氛 Gloomy global outlook stalks finance ministers
If the Inca sun gods have been hiding in Lima, as the chieftains of the global economy gathered over the past week, it is because they were given plenty of reason to go into hiding.
如果說過去一週全球經濟掌門人齊聚利馬開會期間印加太陽神在玩躲貓貓，那是因爲它們有大把理由躲起來。
Under leaden skies in the Peruvian capital, the International Monetary Fund has delivered a series of reports full of gloom. It has downgraded its forecast for growth this year and warned of grim financial risks hanging over the global economy. The fund now expects the global economy to grow at 3.1 per cent, its slowest growth rate since the 2007-8 financial crisis and the recession that followed in many big economies.
在祕魯首都鉛灰色的天空下，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)發表了一系列瀰漫陰鬱情緒的報告。該組織調降了今年增長預測，並警告稱，嚴峻的金融風險正籠罩在全球經濟之上。IMF現在預計，全球經濟今年將增長3.1%，這將是自2007-08年金融危機及隨後許多大型經濟體衰退以來的最慢增速。
Such a downbeat view of the global economy has been borne out by data coming out of the US and Germany over the past week. What had hitherto been a resilient US labour market showed signs of slowing down in September, and Germany’s exports and industrial production are suffering from a downturn in China and other emerging economies.
對全球經濟的這種悲觀觀點得到過去一週美國和德國數據的佐證。之前一直頗具韌性的美國勞動力市場9月出現放緩跡象，而德國的出口和工業產值受到中國等新興經濟體低迷的拖累。
“It is very clear from this IMF meeting that the risks in the global economy are rising,” George Osborne, the UK chancellor, told reporters yesterday on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
“從本次IMF會議可以清楚地看出，全球經濟中的風險正在上升，”英國財政大臣喬治斯本(George Osborne)昨日在IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)年會的間隙對記者們表示。
There are concerns that the world’s response is too piecemeal.
目前有一些人擔心世界各國的迴應過於零打碎敲。
Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, called for countries to employ a “new recipe” to respond and stimulate growth.
IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)呼籲各國採用“新配方”來回應低迷局面，刺激經濟增長。
Jack Lew, who as US Treasury secretary guards one of the few bright spots in the global economy, scolded other industrialised nations, questioning their “will” to do more to stimulate growth. He told reporters: “In Europe and Japan ... there is certainly more that can be done on both demand and structural reform. Clearly there is the capacity to do more. The question is will.”
守護着全球經濟中少數亮點的美國財政部長傑克戠(Jack Lew)不客氣地批評其它工業化國家，質疑它們有沒有“決心”採取更多行動刺激經濟增長。他對記者們表示：“在歐洲和日本……在需求和結構性改革方面肯定都有更多事情可以做。採取更多行動的空間顯然是存在的。現在的問題是決心。”
Lou Jiwei, China’s finance minister, said yesterday: “We need co-ordinated monetary and fiscal policies.”
中國財長樓繼偉昨日表示，世界需要協調的貨幣和財政政策。
The mood in Lima has been softened somewhat by a sense that the Chinese authorities may be over the summer panic that led to turmoil in world markets, and that they are back in command of their economy, on message and intent on reform. All week, in the halls of Peru’s central bank and the adjoining convention centre and national museum where the meetings have been held, Chinese officials have been working hard to reassure their counterparts.
從某種意義上說，各方在利馬會議上情緒有所放鬆，原因是大家覺得，中國當局已經擺脫了今年夏天導致世界市場動盪的恐慌，他們已重新掌控本國經濟——在發出的訊息和改革意圖上都是如此。整整一週期間，在祕魯央行大廳以及毗鄰的會展中心和國家博物館的會場上，中國官員們一直在努力安撫國際同行。
“I would say, ‘Don’t worry,’” Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, told one session early in the week, insisting that China remained “pretty much” on a path of “middle-to-high growth in the near future”.
“我會說，‘別擔心，’”中國央行(PBoC)副行長易綱在本週早些時候的一個會議上表示。他堅稱，中國在未來一段時間內仍基本上處於保持中高速增長的軌道上。
Mr Lou also repeated a reassurance that Beijing did not intend to engage in a currency war with the rest of the world in order to help the cause of exporters at home.
樓繼偉還重申，北京方面無意爲了幫助本國出口企業而與世界其他國家打一場匯率戰爭。
“I want to emphasise that the basis is not there for the continued devaluation of the renminbi,” he told reporters.
“我想強調的是，人民幣不存在持續貶值的基礎，”他告訴記者。
Despite its best efforts, Beijing’s re愀猀猀甀爀愀渀挀攀 is accepted warily.
儘管中方盡了最大努力，但外界對北京方面的保證仍半信半疑。
“China has undertaken a reform programme ... that would address many of the important challenges China faces,” said Mr Lew. “The question now is do they have the will to stick with that and to demonstrate with their actions that they have the will to stick with it.”
“中國開展了改革計劃……那將應對中國面臨的許多重大挑戰，”傑克戠桓示。“現在的問題是，他們有堅持下去的決心嗎？他們能夠以行動表明自己有堅持下去的決心嗎？”
On the other hand, one leading economy not subjected to a downgrade in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook this week was China, which the IMF still expects to grow 6.8 per cent this year.
另一方面，本週IMF《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)沒有調降預測的一個大型經濟體正是中國；IMF仍預計中國今年將增長6.8%。
Amid the gloom, the upshot is that this week’s annual meetings have not been consumed by the sort of acute crises, such as Greece’s economic meltdown, that have overshadowed them in the recent past.
在一片陰鬱氣氛中，好的一面是本週舉行的年會沒有被迫在眉睫的嚴重危機籠罩，比如近年曾給這些年會蒙上陰影的希臘經濟危機。
If the message from the IMF is that the world economy is being dragged into slower growth by emerging economies who face an increasing array of challenges, some officials were also keen to point out that the global recovery remained under way.
如果說IMF發出的信息是世界經濟正被面臨越來越多挑戰的新興經濟體拖入較慢增長軌道，那麼一些官員也熱衷於指出，全球經濟復甦仍在繼續。
“I think we should just first of all remind ourselves that growth is at 3.1 [per cent],” said Ms Lagarde. “There is continued recovery... We are simply saying that it is decelerating a bit.”
“我認爲我們應該首先提醒自己，增長仍達到3.1%，”拉加德表示。“復甦在繼續……我們只是在說它有點減速。”
