中國股市的陣痛 China’s market woes are more than a distant explosion
The world has finally woken up to the magnitude of what is happening in China. After months in which events in Europe overshadowed first the puffing up and then the popping of China’s stock market bubble, daily oscillations on the country’s once-obscure stock exchanges are being blamed for everything from weak oil prices to falling emerging market currencies.
世界終於意識到中國正在發生的事情的重大性。此前數月，歐洲的事件先後蓋過了中國股市泡沫的膨脹以及隨後的爆裂。現在，人們正將從油價疲軟到新興市場貨幣下跌的一切事情，歸咎於中國曾經不受關注的證券交易所每日的震盪。
This is overdone. China’s stock market performance has rarely had much, if any, correlation with the country’s real economy, let alone that of the rest of the world. Barely 20 years old and poorly regulated, the stock market still has more in common with the gambling casinos of Macau than with global exchanges in western capitals such as New York, London or Tokyo. Nor are foreign investors much exposed to Chinese equities. Because of tight quotas, only a tiny proportion of China’s stock market — about 3 per cent — is owned by foreigners. That should make what is happening in China’s financial markets akin to an explosion in a far off cave.
這就過頭了。中國股市的表現即使真的和該國實體經濟有關，相關性也從來不大，更不必說和世界其他地方有什麼相關性了。剛剛邁過20個春秋且監管不力的中國股市和澳門賭場之間的共同點，依然要多於和紐約、倫敦或者東京等西方國家首都的全球性交易所的共同點。外國投資者對中國股票的敞口也不大。由於嚴格的配額，中國股市只有微小的一部分——大約是3%——目前爲外國人持有。這樣看來，中國金融市場正在發生的事情應該近似於一個遙遠的洞穴發生的一場爆炸。
Even in China itself, the effects on the real economy ought not to be large. As Arthur Kroeber, head of Gavekal Dragonomics, points out, only 7 per cent of urban Chinese have money in the market. If they lose their shirt, that should not overly affect aggregate spending. In any case, most investors are in the money. The market more than doubled in the 18 months before it peaked in mid-June. Only the latest of latecomers have seen their investments slide.
即使在中國，實體經濟遭受的影響應該也不大。正如龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)主管葛藝豪(Arthur Kroeber)指出的，只有7%的中國城市居民向股市中投入了資金。就算他們賠光了，這也不會過於影響總支出。不管怎樣，大多數投資者還是發了一筆財。在6月中旬達到頂峯之前，股市在之前的18個月中翻了一倍多。只有最晚入市的一批人的投資虧損了。
Does that mean there is no need to worry? Absolutely not. There could be several big ripple effects. First, the wild oscillations have shaken faith in the competence of China’s technocrats. For years, bureaucrats have defied doom猀愀礀攀爀猀 predicting that China’s hybrid system of central planning and market forces would collapse under its own contradictions. Now the bureaucrats don’t look so good. Initially, they pumped up the market in what looks like an ill-conceived effort to enact what has been called the world’s biggest debt-to-equity swap. Worried that loans made to companies as part of a massive stimulus programme would turn sour, technocrats encouraged a stock market binge. Their subsequent actions to stop the bubble from bursting have looked anachronistic and heavy-handed. They have virtually criminalised selling stocks, banning anyone who owns more than 5 per cent of a company from offloading shares.
這是否意味着我們無需憂慮？絕對不是。可能會有幾個大的連鎖反應。首先，股市的劇烈震盪動搖了對中國技術官僚能力的信心。多年來，中國官僚一直藐視災難預言者，後者預測中國集中央計劃和市場力量於一身的混合體制將因自身矛盾而崩潰。現在這些官僚看上去可不大好。最初，他們採用了一種看起來考慮不周的做法，推高股市以實行被稱爲世界上規模最大的“債轉股”。由於擔憂在一項大規模刺激計劃中借給企業的貸款可能變成壞賬，技術官僚鼓勵了一輪股市狂潮。之後他們爲阻止股市泡沫爆裂而採取的行動看起來過時而粗暴。他們實際上將拋售股票非法化，禁止任何持有一家企業5%以上股票的人賣出股票。
“This has set the Chinese stock market back 10 years,” says one close observer of China’s capital markets. Not only have such blunderbuss tactics revealed panic and outmoded instincts, they have not worked. After Sisyphean efforts to push stock prices up by 15 per cent, technocrats must have watched open-mouthed as they sank back 8.5 per cent in a single session. The prices are still 70 per cent above last year’s level, when the economy and corporate profits were in much better shape. The assumption must be that, if the authorities stop their efforts to push the boulder uphill, the forces of gravity will quickly take their toll.
“這讓中國股市倒退了10年，”一位密切觀察中國資本市場的人士說。這些粗陋的做法不僅暴露了恐慌和過時的本能反應，還未能奏效。在通過如西西弗斯推巨石一般的努力，將股價推高15%以後，技術官僚們一定是目瞪口呆地看着股價在1個交易日內下跌了8.5%。現在股價依然比去年高出70%，而去年的經濟狀況和企業盈利都比現在好得多。可以假定，如果當局停止將巨石推上山，重力一定會迅速發揮作用。
Second, the assumption that China will gradually move towards a more market-based system might need to be reassessed. Recent events could persuade authorities they have been moving too fast. That could have an impact on everything from the pace at which China opens its capital account and makes the renminbi convertible to how fast it liberalises domestic interest rates.
其次，認爲中國將逐步邁向更市場化的體制的假設，可能需要重新評估。最近的事件可能會讓當局認爲他們的步子邁得太快。這可能會影響到方方面面，從中國開放資本賬戶、使人民幣可兌換的步調，到中國國內利率自由化的速度。
“What this reveals is that there is still a fundamental tension in China between a desire to intervene and a desire to let market forces operate,” says Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. That could affect whether the International Monetary Fund includes the renminbi in its special drawing rights, or whether China’s A-shares gain access to the MSCI Emerging Market index. Certainly, the clumsy intervention by authorities has had a chilling effect on global sentiment. Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, said foreign investors would need to reassess.
“這揭示出，在干預的願望和讓市場力量發揮作用的願望之間，中國仍存在根本性緊張，”匯豐銀行(HSBC)首席亞洲經濟學家範力民(Fred Neumann)表示。這可能會影響國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)是否將人民幣納入特別提款權(SDR)，或者中國A股是否能夠被納入MSCI新興市場指數。毫無疑問，當局生硬的干預給全球市場情緒帶來了寒蟬效應。貝萊德(BlackRock)首席執行官拉里芬克(Larry Fink)稱，外國投資者需要重新評估。
The third possible impact is on China’s growth. True, it is not obvious how a market fall will spill over into the real economy. China has bucked sharp stock market slides before. This time, though, the risks are higher. Many in瘀攀猀琀漀爀猀 have borrowed heavily to buy shares. If authorities cannot stop a slide, some banks and brokerages could be at risk. The confidence-sapping oscillations are also taking place against the background of a much softer economy, one probably growing more slowly than the official 7 per cent figure suggests. If another point or two were shaved off growth, it could send very real tremors around the globe. Since 2008, China has been the motor of the world. The travails of its stock market add to evidence that this motor is spluttering.
第三，這可能影響中國的增長。的確，股市下跌將如何波及實體經濟並不明顯。中國經濟曾經在股市暴跌時逆勢上行。然而，這一次的風險更高。許多投資者借入大量資金購買股票。如果當局無法阻止股市下跌，一些銀行和券商可能將面臨風險。並且，眼下削弱信心的股市震盪發生在經濟大幅放緩的背景下。當前中國的經濟增長很可能比官方給出的7%的數字要慢。如果中國的增長率再下降1個或者2個百分點，這可能向全球傳遞真正的震顫。自2008年以來，中國一直是全球的引擎。中國的股市陣痛進一步證明，這臺引擎正在發生故障。
