降息能否推高中國股市 How have Chinese investors responded to rate cuts
Should China's investors be expected to cheer an interest rate cut or not?
降息會不會引來中國投資者的歡呼？Going by popular belief, a stock market rally is the norm. But going by an analysis of the People's Bank of China's previous easing efforts, it's about 50-50, writes Peter Wells. (But those are pretty much the odds as to whether Chinese shares will be up or down on any day, aren't they.)
按照流行的觀點，降息通常會帶來股市上漲。然而，對中國央行此前幾次寬鬆舉措的分析顯示，股市上漲和下跌的可能性大約各佔一半。（不過，中國股市任意一天上漲和下跌的可能性不也是各佔一半嗎？）
Something that is a little clearer, though, is that the PBoC's rate cuts in this cycle have generally been cheered by investors. The interest rate cut at the weekend to a record low 4.85 per cent is the sixth since easing cycle began in July 2012. In the sessions that have followed those rate cuts, the Shanghai Composite has risen four times out of five, and the average performance is a 1.2 per cent gain (see table).
但是，更明確一些的事實是，在這輪週期中，中國央行的降息舉措一般都受到了投資者的歡迎。上週末，中國央行將貸款基準利率降至4.85%的創紀錄低點，此次降息是2012年7月開始的這輪寬鬆週期以來的第六次。在前五次降息後的交易日，上證綜指上漲了四次，平均上漲幅度是1.2%（見圖表）。
Winding things back to the financial crisis, interest rate cuts weren't much of a cause for celebration. That said, interest rate cuts by any country during the financial crisis didn't necessarily draw positive reactions from investors, and instead had an air of panic about them.
讓時光倒流至金融危機期間，當時，降息並未引來投資者的歡呼。不過，在金融危機期間，任何國家的降息舉措都不一定會引起投資者的積極反應，相反會營造一種恐慌的氛圍。Accordingly, the average reaction to all cuts since 2000 has been a 0.25 per cent drop. Up until today, the Shanghai Composite has risen in six occasions following a rate cut, and fallen in six.
相應的，2000年以來所有降息舉措後的行情平均而言是下跌0.25%。直到今天，上證綜指在降息舉措後六次上漲、六次下跌。Granted, often the share market can run ahead of the news. One reason Chinese shares have rallied this year is on expectations of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. As those announcements become official, there can be a bit of the old "buy the rumour, sell the fact".
當然，股市行情往往領先於消息。今年中國股市上漲的原因之一，是對貨幣寬鬆和財政刺激舉措的預期。當種種說法被官方確認時，情況就有點像那句老話：“傳言出現時買進，傳言證實後賣出”。The PBoC has previously cut rates in this cycle on weaker economic data, but this weekend's episode is more about market confidence.
這輪週期中，中國央行此前降息的動機都源自較疲軟的經濟數據。然而，上週末的降息動機，更多地是出自提振市場信心的需要。Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect the cuts to "temporarily halt a possible crash in the market", as if the government did not take action, margin calls would force leveraged positions to be unwound, causing capitulation. But this could all be a band-aid. The bank continued:“Short term bounce aside, we doubt that the latest cuts will trigger any sustained rally. As Chart 1 shows, this is the the 4th round of major PBoC actions to support the market since Nov 2014 (Feb/Mar & Apr/May being the other two) & each subsequent round's impact had diminished. By now, very few investors harbour any doubt about the government's desire to see the market up. But recent inflows into the market had proven insufficient to offset outflows & push the market higher.”
美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)分析師預計，此次降息會“暫時遏止可能出現的市場崩盤”，因爲如果政府不採取措施，追加保證金的通知就會迫使槓桿頭寸平倉，引發拋售。不過，這些可能都只是權宜之計。該行接着說：“除了短期反彈以外，我們不認爲這次降息會引發任何持續的反彈，如圖表所示，這是2014年11月以來中國央行第四次大舉託市。到目前爲止，很少有投資者懷疑中國政府希望看到牛市。不過，事實證明，最近流入股市的資金不足以抵消資金外流，也不足以推高股市。”
