中國股市爲何波動劇烈 Why are China’s stock markets so volatile

China is now home to the world’s largest equity markets after the US. Yet extreme volatility is still typical, with benchmark indices often swinging as much as 10 per cent in hours. On one day in June, for example, more than $700bn was wiped off Chinese stocks.

中國現在已經是全球僅次於美國的第二大股票市場。然而極度波動仍然是中國股市的典型特徵，基準股指在數小時內的振幅常常高達10%。例如，今年6月的某一天，中國股市逾7000億美元市值灰飛煙滅。

What is the investor profile behind China’s equity market?

中國股市的投資者是什麼樣子的？

Retail punters account for 80-90 per cent of trading. Many of them are new to investing — in May alone 12m trading accounts were opened. That means millions of people trading stocks have little or no direct memory of the 2007-08 stock market bubble and crash.

散戶投資者佔到中國股市成交量的80%至90%。其中許多人是新股民——僅在今年5月一個月就有1200萬新開賬戶。這意味着數百萬股民對2007-08年股市泡沫和崩盤只有很少的直接記憶，或者完全沒有記憶。

Even professional fund managers often act with very short-term horizons. Many are measured on monthly or quarterly performance, adding pressure to chase the market higher as it moves.

即便專業的基金公司往往也會超短線交易。許多基金公司按月或者按季衡量業績，這增加了它們在股市上漲時追漲的壓力。

What impact has state policy had on the market?

政府政策對中國股市有什麼影響？

Chinese markets are often described as policy-driven. That goes well beyond monetary policy and deep into securities and banking regulation. State-media rhetoric has a role, shown by supportive messages in various government newspapers. But Beijing’s pronouncements are often open to interpretation, leading to sharp rises and falls as millions of investors try to read the runes.

中國股市往往被稱爲“政策市”。這遠非僅僅指貨幣政策，而是還深深涉及證券和銀行業監管。官方媒體言論也佔一席之地，各類政府報紙發表的支持性信息就體現了這一點。但對中國政府的聲明往往會有各種解讀，在數百萬投資者努力一窺玄機時，導致股市暴漲暴跌。

As long as the stock market remains a policy lever for the government, and share indices dominated by state-owned enterprises, Beijing’s heavy hand is unlikely to be significantly weakened.

只要股市依然是中國政府的政策工具、同時股指依然由國有企業主導，中國政府的強力干預就不太可能被大幅削弱。

Beijing has tried to encourage long-term institutional investors, for example by granting freer access to large foreign asset managers or sovereign wealth funds. Progress has been slow.

中國政府努力鼓勵長期機構投資者，例如讓大型外國資產管理公司或者主權財富基金更自由地進入國內股市。但這方面的進展一直非常緩慢。

Margin finance has been cited as major factor behind growth. How does it work?

融資交易一直被視爲推動中國股市本輪上漲的主要因素。它是如何作用的？

Using borrowed money to trade stocks is a common feature of equity markets globally but in China it has rocketed over the past year. Margin trading as a percentage of overall market capitalisation reached a record earlier this year, says Macquarie — far higher than anything in any other market at any point in history.

用借來的資金炒股是全球股市的共同特徵，但在中國，融資交易在過去一年裏激增。麥格理(Macquarie)表示，今年早些時候，融資交易佔市場整體市值的比例達到了創紀錄的高點，遠高於歷史上其他所有市場中的這一比例。

High levels of leverage help explain why stocks ran up so quickly over the past year. But that borrowing leaves the stock market prone to dramatic falls as investors struggle to meet margin calls.

高槓杆有助於解釋股市爲何在過去一年裏如此快速地上漲。但在投資者難以滿足追加保證金要求的時候，這種槓桿讓股市很容易大幅下跌。

The regulators have tried to cut the level of margin lending in the system, a key reason for the recent pull back.

監管機構試圖降低系統內的槓桿水平，這就是最近股市回落的關鍵原因。

Have initial public offerings also helped drive the market?

首次公開發行(IPO)也助推了市場走勢？

The system for new listings in China remains tightly controlled by authorities. The state in effect sets the price of new share sales, virtually guaranteeing quick bumper returns for those able to buy in. Even when the Shanghai market has fallen sharply, IPOs have typically risen by the daily limit of 44 per cent.

中國新股發行機制依然受到政府的嚴格控制。政府實際上制定新股發行價格，相當於確保讓那些能夠買到的投資者可以迅速獲得鉅額回報。即便在上海股市大幅下跌之際，新股在上市首日通常也會達到44%的漲幅上限。

The result is investors pull cash from the market ahead of new listings, draining billions of dollars of liquidity for a number of days. That can torpedo the market, but then push it back up when the funds are unlocked again.

結果是，投資者在新股發行前從市場抽出資金，在一段時間內持續抽走數十億美元的流動性。這可以讓市場暴跌，但在資金再次解凍時又可以推升股市。

Regulators are aware of the need for a rethink, and have promised to hand over IPO approval powers to the stock exchanges.

監管機構意識到有必要進行反思，並承諾將IPO審批權交給證券交易所。

What are the hedging options?

有哪些對衝選擇？

Although China has introduced a system for short-selling stocks, it remains of little use in practical terms. Borrowing costs are high and the availability of stock to borrow is limited. The only viable way of hedging exposure is through index futures, unhelpful for those trading specific stocks or sectors. Instead, traders buy or sell to lessen or increase exposure, which can result in stampedes when sentiment switches.

儘管中國推出了融券機制，但在現實中仍然用處不大。融券成本很高，而且可供融入的股票有限。對衝股票風險的唯一可行方式是通過股指期貨，但這對那些交易個股或板塊的投資者來說沒什麼幫助。實際上，交易員通過買賣股指期貨來降低或者增加風險敞口，這在市場情緒轉變時可能導致投資者蜂擁出逃。

And what are the prospects for change?

變革的前景如何？

That regulators have tried to introduce shorting at all shows a recognition of the problem. April’s debut of options for shorting small-caps was an important step in the right direction. But the steps taken fall far short of what is needed, suggesting that authorities remain wary of the consequences of making short selling easier.

監管機構既然努力推出賣空機制，就表明他們認識到了問題。今年4月首次推出的可以做空小盤股的中證500股指期貨是朝正確方向邁出的重要一步。但這些舉措遠遠滿足不了需求，表明當局仍對降低做空難度的後果懷有戒心。