Lex專欄 中國金融環境的變與不變

Earlier this year, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase chief executive, warned that breaking up the bank would leave room for a Chinese institution to replace it. On measures other than size (ICBC already has a market capitalisation on a par with Wells Fargo, the largest US bank) this might seem far-fetched: how could a state-owned entity hope to replace the profit-driven bastions of free market enterprise?

今年早些時候，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執行官傑米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)警告稱，拆分摩根大通會給中國的銀行取而代之留下可趁之機。在除規模以外的衡量標準上（中國工商銀行(ICBC)的市值已經與美國最大銀行富國銀行(Wells Fargo)持平），這一論斷似乎有些牽強：一個國有實體怎麼可能取代受利潤驅動的堡壘般的自由市場企業？

Chinese policy should provide support. China is targeting overseas expansion. The “Going Out” policy, which since 1999 has encouraged companies to make foreign investments, has recently been joined by the New Silk Road initiative. Designed to stimulate trade and investment with Asian neighbours, this should lead to large regional infrastructure projects backed by China’s state-controlled banks.

中國的政策能提供支持。中國正着眼於海外擴張。自1999年以來，“走出去”政策鼓勵中國企業進行海外投資，最近又加上了“新絲綢之路”計劃。該計劃旨在刺激中國與亞洲鄰國的貿易和投資，應該會帶來多個得到中國國有銀行支持的大型地區性基建項目。

The government is pushing its currency overseas, too. Last year, all four of the big Chinese banks (ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank and China Construction Bank) increased the volume of cross-border renminbi transactions. Bank of China, China’s most global bank, grew its cross-border RMB settlements by a third to $850bn (this compares with the bank’s total international settlements of $3.9tn).

中國政府還在把人民幣推向海外。去年，中國四大銀行（工行、中國銀行(BoC)，中國農業銀行(ABC)和中國建設銀行(CCB)）的跨境人民幣交易量增加。中國全球化程度最高的中國銀行，人民幣跨境結算額增長了三分之一，至8500億美元（該行的國際結算總額爲3.9萬億美元）。

Meanwhile, back home, market forces are becoming more significant. Over the past year, China has taken steps towards freeing up interest rates from state control. The latest, after the market close on Tuesday, was to introduce deposit insurance — a measure that could allow struggling banks to go bust without hurting individual savers. The government is also keen for banks to shift their domestic loan exposure from large companies and fixed-asset investment to small companies and the tech sector. Competition from companies including Alibaba and Tencent has been brought in to kick-start the process. The big four have dutifully emphasised their efforts to support the new economic priorities.

同時，在中國國內，市場的力量也變得更加顯著。在過去的一年中，中國已採取措施從國家管控中放開利率。週二股市收盤後公佈的最新舉措是引入存款保險制度——該制度讓陷入困境的銀行可以破產，而不會損害個人儲戶的利益。政府還熱切希望銀行將國內貸款敞口從大公司和固定資產投資轉向小公司和科技行業。來自阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)等公司的競爭被引入，以讓這一進程迅速啓動。四大行則盡職盡責地加強努力，支持新的經濟優先事項。

But American banks need not worry yet. China’s financial universe is changing but perhaps Chinese banks are not: much of this still smacks of national service.

但美國的銀行還無需憂心。中國的金融大環境正在改變，但中國的銀行或許並非如此：大多數中國的銀行依然帶有國民服務的味道。