Lex專欄 中國房企H股的牛市行情

In China’s liquidity-inspired rally, the latest beneficiaries are shares in Hong-Kong listed Chinese residential property developers. After lagging most mainland brethren over the first quarter, the sector is catching up, rising an average of two-fifths so far this quarter. State-owned blue-chip and institutional favourite China Overseas Land and Investment, up nearly one-third, is at a record high. Trading at 2 times historic book value, it no longer looks cheap versus its five-year average of 2.1 times. Peer China Resources Land, up a similar magnitude, already trades above its five-year average.

在中國此輪由流動性引發的漲勢行情中，最新的受益者是在香港上市的中國住宅房地產開發商。在第一季度落後於多數內地同行之後，該板塊正迎頭趕上，本季度迄今平均上漲了五分之二。機構青睞的國有藍籌股——中國海外發展(China Overseas Land and Investment)的股價上漲了近三分之一，目前已位於記錄高點。該股目前的交易價格是歷史賬面價值的2倍，相比起其2.1倍的5年平均水平，看起來不再便宜。同行華潤置地(China Resources Land)漲幅相當，目前的股價已經高於5年平均水平。

Bears might argue that the run in a troubled sector is further sign of the bubbly nature of China’s rally; recent data, however, point to a turnround. Yesterday, real estate consultancy Shanghai Uwin said Shanghai new home sale volumes rose by three-fifths in April, with prices up more than 5 per cent month on month. News agency Xinhua said that secondary unit sales in Beijing hit a 25-month high. And last week, April new home prices in China’s top cities were flat compared with March, according to property researcher China Index Academy, potentially bottoming. The recovery is trickling down, too. Deutsche Bank says that sales volume in third and fourth tier cities rose substantially versus March; prices also ticked up.

看空者或許認爲這一問題板塊的行情進一步表明了中國此輪漲勢的泡沫本質；然而，最近的數據有所好轉。昨天，房地產諮詢公司上海佑威(Shanghai Uwin)稱，4月上海新建商品住宅成交量環比上漲約60%，成交均價環比上漲逾5%。新華社稱，北京二手房成交量處於25個月高點。房地產研究機構中國指數研究院(China Index Academy)上週數據顯示，中國主要城市4月新建住宅均價與3月持平，可能表明房價已經觸底。房地產復甦也在向下層滲透。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)稱，中國三四線城市的住宅銷量較3月大幅增加，價格也出現上升。

So in spite of previously poor data for mid-cap names — including rights issues and China’s first corporate dollar debt default from developer Kaisa — smaller companies are outperforming: Hopson and Greenland, for instance, have nearly doubled in recent weeks.

因此，儘管中盤股之前消息面不佳（包括增發以及創下中國首例企業美元債務違約的佳兆業(Kaisa)），但規模較小的企業正跑贏大盤：比如，最近幾周，合生創展(Hopson)和綠地(Greenland)的股價均上漲了近一倍。

The run could continue. Many mid-caps, such as Franshion and Greentown and China Overseas Grand Oceans, still trade below historic book values. As shares rise, bargain-hunting investors should keep an eye on city-specific pricing and inventory trends. Seasoned estate agents know: property is all about location, location, location.

此輪漲勢可能會繼續。方興地產(Franshion)、綠城(Greentown)和中國海外宏洋(China Overseas Grand Oceans)等很多中盤股目前的股價仍然低於歷史賬面價值。隨着股價上漲，尋求抄底的投資者應該密切關注特定城市的房價走勢及庫存趨勢。經驗豐富的房地產經紀人知道：房地產最重要的三個因素就是位置、位置、還是位置。