Lex專欄 紫光收購美光的邏輯
A memo to those who thought volatility in the semiconductor industry was a thing of the past: it is not. This thesis has been popular for some time. But even after years of consolidation, the industry is still prone to boom-and-bust cycles —even if they are a bit gentler now that the number of global D-Ram manufacturers has dropped to three.
認爲半導體行業的波動性已成爲過去的人聽好了：事實並非如此。這一假說已經流行了一段時間。但即使進行了多年的整合，這個行業依然容易受到盛衰週期的影響——就算因爲全球範圍內動態隨機存取存儲器(D-Ram)製造商已經減少到三家，這些週期變得溫和了一些。
This can make for interesting M&A opportunities.
這可能創造有意思的併購機會。
Tsinghua Unigroup , the Chinese state-backed investment group, is reportedly interested in buying Micron, the US’s biggest memory chipmaker. Micron looks like good value: its stock has fallen 50 per cent this year as sales of memory chips have disappointed. Revenue fell 3 per cent year-on-year in the most recent quarter, with the company expecting a further decline. Slow PC sales are partly to blame — 60 per cent of Micron’s sales are D-Ram chips, which are used in PCs and servers.
據報道，得到中國政府支持的投資集團清華紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)有意收購美國最大內存芯片製造商美光科技(Micron)。美光科技看起來物有所值：由於內存芯片銷售情況令人失望，美光科技的股價今年已下跌50%。最近一個季度的營收同比下降3%，該公司預期營收還將進一步下降。個人電腦(PC)銷售趨緩是部分原因——美光科技60%的銷售額來自用於PC和服務器的D-Ram芯片。
Regardless of whether Unigroup buys Micron, the deal rumours send a strong signal: the semiconductor industry may be near a trough. Seasonal demand for D-Ram will strengthen in the second half of the year, says TrendForce, a consultancy that tracks D-Ram prices. And demand for D-Ram in servers will help compensate for poor PC sales.
不管清華紫光是否要收購美光科技，這些交易傳言發出了一個強大信號：半導體行業或許已接近谷底。追蹤D-Ram價格的諮詢公司TrendForce表示，D-Ram的季節性需求將在今年下半年加強。而對服務器用D-Ram的需求將有助於彌補PC銷售的疲弱。
A tie-up between Micron and Unigroup could have some strategic logic. China does not have any big memory chipmakers; state-controlled Unigroup has been investing in this area with purchases of Spreadtrum and RDA, two mobile phone chip designers. And China is Micron’s biggest market, accounting for 40 per cent of sales last year. Moreover, Beijing’s policymakers have been getting tough on foreign tech groups — meaning Chinese ownership could create favourable opportunities.
美光科技和清華紫光結盟可能具有一定的戰略邏輯。中國沒有任何大型內存芯片製造商；國有控股的紫光一直在該領域進行投資，已收購了兩家手機芯片設計公司展訊(Spreadtrum)和銳迪科微電子(RDA Microelectronics)。中國也是美光科技的最大市場，去年佔其銷售額的40%。此外，北京方面的政策制定者對外國科技公司的態度正日益強硬——這意味着在中資集團旗下可能帶來有利機會。
