Lex專欄 中國股市順者昌

In an era of performance chasing and “tactical trading,” holding on to a buy rating for seven and a half years shows commitment. But even loyal Morgan Stanley has downgraded China’s stock market. Other brokers are making cautious noises, too. A flurry of capital raisings and initial public offerings suggest that companies also think this is a good time to sell. Worries about speculative froth are focused on high levels of margin debt in retail trading accounts. In the past three days China’s markets have swooned.

在一個追逐表現、講究“策略性交易”的時代，維持“買入”評級達7年半彰顯了一種鐵桿情結。但就連忠實的摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)都已下調了中國股票市場的評級。其他經紀商也紛紛附和，提醒投資者謹慎行事。一連串的融資活動和首次公開發行(IPO)表明，各公司也認爲這是一個很好的賣出時機。對投機性泡沫的擔憂主要集中在個人交易賬戶的保證金借款(margin debt)水平過高上。中國股市已經連續大跌了三天。

Bears have the momentum, then. But they should be careful. The authorities are against them. Central and local governments do not want a market collapse added to the list of threats to growth and, as major holders of financial assets, will act to protect their own balance sheets.

於是，看跌中國股市的人來了勁頭。但他們應該小心。當局站在他們的對立面。無論中央還是地方政府不希望在增長威脅清單上增加股市崩盤這一項，並且由於持有大量金融資產，他們將採取行動保護自己的資產負債表。

So official Beijing mouthpiece Xinhua has said that financial reforms and easing measures would keep the bull market going. And fiscal measures have been added to the liquidity tools already employed in stimulating the domestic economy.

所以，官方喉舌新華社表示，金融改革和寬鬆政策將推動牛市走下去。中國爲刺激國內經濟動用了一些流動性工具，現又增加了財政措施。

Healthcare — on which China’s government spends less than 6 per cent of gross domestic product versus about 10 in most major economies, on World Bank data — is one example. The government has announced drug price deregulation. Research-driven companies such as Hong Kong-listed Sino Biopharm and Shanghai-listed Jiangsu Hengrui, are potential winners.

醫療就是一個例子。世界銀行(World Bank)數據顯示，中國政府在醫療領域的開支不足國內生產總值(GDP)的6%，而主要經濟體的這一比例約爲10%。中國政府已宣佈放開藥品價格管制。側重研發的公司將是潛在贏家，比如在香港上市的中國生物製藥(Sino Biopharm)，在上海上市的江蘇恆瑞醫藥(Jiangsu Hengrui)。

To offset concerns around rising costs to consumers, the government will help subsidise the elderly and critically ill. On Wednesday, China’s State Council announced a pilot tax incentive on private healthcare insurance.

爲了消除有關看病越來越貴的擔憂，中國政府將向老人和重症患者提供補貼。週三，中國國務院宣佈試點對購買商業健康保險給予個人所得稅優惠。

Individual savings of $77-$174 a year should bolster health insurance products, Bernstein points out. Last year these grew at 41 per cent to account for more than a tenth of the life insurance market. China Life, PICC and Ping An have about a fifth of that market each, reckons Credit Suisse.

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)指出，一年77至174美元的個人儲蓄，應該會推動健康保險產品發展。去年這類產品增長了41%，佔壽險市場的份額超過10%。瑞信估計，中國人壽(China Life)、中國人保(PICC)和中國平安(Ping An)在這一市場各佔了20%左右的份額。

Other measures aim to lift domestic consumption. Small and medium enterprises, which create most new jobs in China, will receive tax breaks on hires and lower income tax rates. Restrictions on duty free shopping have been loosened, and import tariffs reduced.

政府還採取了旨在提振國內消費的措施。提供了大多數新增就業崗位的中小企業將在招工方面享受稅收優惠，並適用更低的所得稅稅率。對於免稅購物的限制有所放寬，進口關稅也下降了。

Do not fight the Fed, investors are told. They should also think carefully before taking a swing at Beijing.

投資者得到告誡，不要跟美聯儲(Fed)對着幹。他們在挑戰北京方面之前，也應該三思而行。