中國債市通過地產壓力測試

Asia’s fast-growing bond market faced its biggest challenge earlier this year, with the sudden fall from grace of Kaisa, the Shenzhen-based property developer.

今年早些時候，隨着深圳房地產開發商佳兆業(Kaisa)陷入困境，亞洲快速發展的債券市場面臨有史以來最爲嚴峻的考驗。

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded Kaisa to “D”, meaning default, after it missed two bond coupon payments — the latest twist in a tale that sent panic through the Chinese real estate sector just a few weeks earlier. Its ability to reach a quick deal with creditors remains “highly uncertain”, the rating agency said.

最近，在佳兆業未能償付兩筆債券利息之後，標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)將其評級下調至違約級別的“D”級，這是僅僅數週前讓中國房地產領域感到恐慌的事件中的最新風波。標普表示，佳兆業能否與債權人快速達成協議依然“極不確定”。

Yet initial fears that contagion would spread through the credit market appear to have blown over. Bond prices have recovered, and investors are once again lending billions of dollars to Chinese homebuilders. So has this impromptu stress test been passed with flying colours?

然而，最初有關恐慌將在整個信貸市場蔓延的擔憂似乎已經消散。債券價格已經回升，投資者再次將數十億美元借給中國房地產公司。那麼債市已經成功通過了這次意外的壓力測試？

Before its blow-up, Kaisa was seen as a good barometer for the sector. It was profitable, medium-sized, possessed a BB credit rating, and held around $2.5bn in offshore debt. Its rapid decline called into question the investment thesis upon which tens of billions of dollars had been lent to Chinese developers over the past few years.

在爆發危機前，佳兆業曾被視爲房地產行業的一個很好的風向標。那時，該公司盈利，中等規模，擁有BB信用評級，有大約25億美元的離岸債務。它的快速坍塌令人開始質疑房地產這一投資主題——過去幾年投資者借給了中國房地產開發商數百億美元。

Negative headlines have not been restricted to Kaisa. A number of other Chinese developers have reported sharp drops in sales or abrupt executive departures, while the housing market has continued to weaken despite two rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China.

登上負面新聞頭條的並不僅僅是佳兆業。其他許多中國房地產開發商都曝出了銷售大幅下降或者高管突然離職的消息，同時房地產市場繼續低迷，儘管中國人民銀行(PBOC)兩次下調了利率。

“It appears we’re nowhere close to the property market really beginning to turn around”, says Kenneth Akintewe, investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

安本資產管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的投資經理肯尼斯•埃金特韋(Kenneth Akintewe)表示：“我們離房地產市場真正開始好轉似乎還遠得很。”

However, the bond market has proven remarkably resilient. The JPMorgan Asian credit index (JACI) has risen 2.1 per cent this year, while even the high yield segment, which is dominated by Chinese real estate companies, is up 1.5 per cent.

然而，事實證明，債券市場的韌性非常強。摩根大通亞洲信貸指數(JACI)今年上漲2.1%，同時由中國房地產公司佔據主導地位的高收益債券指數也上漲1.5%。

Issuance from the real estate sector has also returned after a brief hiatus. Country Garden and Shimao Property — both junk-rated borrowers — have together raised more than $2bn, while Sino-Ocean Land completed one of the sector’s biggest deals on record. In total, the sector has raised more than $3.5bn in new borrowing since Kaisa unravelled, according to Dealogic.

在短暫中斷之後，房地產業也重新開始發債。碧桂園(Country Garden)和世茂(Shimao)（評級均爲垃圾級）總計籌得了逾20億美元的資金，同時遠洋地產(Sino-Ocean Land)完成了房地產業有記錄以來最大規模之一的債券發售。Dealogic的數據顯示，自佳兆業爆發危機以來，中國房地產行業總計籌得了逾35億美元的新債務資金。

“Chinese real estate debt has rebounded surprisingly quickly,” says Haitham Ghattas, head of Asian high yield capital markets at Deutsche Bank. “That it can deal with a credit event like this does seem to demonstrate that the market has matured to some degree.”

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的亞洲高收益資本市場主管海塞姆•加塔(Haitham Ghattas)表示：“中國房地產債券令人意外地迅速反彈。它能應對佳兆業這樣的信用事件似乎的確表明，市場在某種程度上成熟了。”

Asia’s offshore debt markets have been growing rapidly during the past few years. Asian borrowers have raised $52.4bn in G3 currency bonds so far this year, according to Dealogic, compared with $18bn over the same period in 2010.

亞洲的離岸債券市場在過去幾年快速發展。Dealogic的數據顯示，今年迄今以來，亞洲借款人通過發行美元、歐元和日元債券籌集了524億美元的資金，相比之下，2010年同期的這一數據爲180億美元。

That growth has drawn in new investors, something analysts say has dulled the threat of panic selling and helped the market ride out bad news.

這種增長吸引了新的投資者，分析師認爲它減輕了恐慌性拋售的威脅，並有助於市場免受壞消息的影響。

“The investor base has changed significantly. You get a lot more local bids,” says Ben Sy, head of credit strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank in Asia. “They know the market better. They have a lot more holding power, so you don’t get selling across the sector.”

摩根大通私人銀行(JPMorgan Private Bank)駐亞洲信貸策略主管本•西(Ben Sy)表示：“投資者基礎發生了極大的改變。來自本地機構的報價更多了。這些機構更瞭解本地市場。他們有更大的粘着力，因此不會出現整個行業的拋售。”

Investors have also drawn comfort from the fact that Kaisa’s problems have not led to a formal liquidation of the company — typically a drawn-out process that leaves bondholders nursing heavy losses. Deloitte estimated that Kaisa creditors would get less than 3 cents on the dollar if the company was wound up.

佳兆業的問題沒有導致該公司正式清算——正式清算是一個通常讓債券持有人蒙受重大損失的漫長過程——這也讓投資者獲得些許慰藉。德勤(Deloitte)估計，如果佳兆業破產，該公司債權人的受償率將不足3%。

Over the weekend, the company said it would continue negotiations with its bondholders in order to reach a “consensual resolution” over a debt restructuring, another positive sign for investors.

佳兆業在週末表示，將繼續與債券持有人談判，以就債務重組達成一個“雙方一致同意的解決方案”，對投資者來說，這又是一個積極的跡象。

However, the recovery in sentiment towards property sector bonds remains fragile, especially as the housing market itself shows renewed signs of sluggishness. Sales in the first two months of the year were “pretty weak”, said Gary Lau, credit analyst at Moody’s, something that will increasingly weigh on investors’ minds.

然而，投資者對房地產債券的情緒改善仍很脆弱，尤其是在房地產市場本身重新顯示出疲弱跡象之際。穆迪(Moody’s)信用分析師劉長浩表示，今年頭兩個月的房地產銷售“相當低迷”，這將給投資者帶來越來越大的壓力。

“The overall operating environment in the property market is declining. The weakening trend is making investors more cautious,” he said.

他說：“房地產市場的整體運營環境日漸低迷。這種疲弱態勢讓投資者更加謹慎。”

Those worries have been manifested in a flight to quality. Despite the recent activity, just six developers have raised new debt this year, down from 20 over the same period in 2013.

這些擔憂還體現在“安全投資轉移”上。儘管最近房地產企業發行了債券，但今年發行新債的房地產開發商只有6家，遠低於2013年同期的20家。

Investors are increasingly gravitating towards companies deemed better equipped for the slowdown — typically larger, state-backed builders. Smaller property borrowers are likely to face a bumpier road ahead.

投資者日益轉向那些被視爲更能抵禦市場低迷的公司，尤其是國有背景的較大型房地產公司。較小的房地產公司今後的日子可能更加難過。

Meanwhile, the Kaisa situation itself could yet drag on. The proposed rescue by rival homebuilder Sunac remains dependent on bondholders agreeing to defer interest payments and slash coupons on existing debts, which some analysts fear creates an unhealthy precedent if other developers run into trouble.

與此同時，佳兆業的情況本身可能會久拖不決。其競爭對手融創(Sunac)提出的紓困舉措，依然取決於債券持有人是否同意延遲利息支付和降低現有債券利率，部分分析師擔心，如果未來其他開發商陷入困境，這會開創一個不好的先例。