金融動盪 不安情緒籠罩達沃斯

DAVOS, Switzerland — Fear is back in the valley of the privileged.

瑞士達沃斯——在這座權貴雲集的山谷裏，擔憂的情緒又回來了。

Financial instability is again a prime source of anxiety for participants at the World Economic Forum after receding last year. Russia and Ukraine, cheap oil, volatile currency markets, deflation, terrorism and even Switzerland are unsettling the global economy and sowing nervousness among the people attending the forum, many of them bankers or investors.

在今年的世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)上，金融動盪再次成爲令與會者心焦的一個主要原因，而去年的時候，這種擔憂一度消散。俄烏關係、低油價、動盪的貨幣市場、通貨緊縮、恐怖主義乃至瑞士都在擾亂全球經濟，並在出席本次論壇的人們心中植入了不安。與會者中，有不少是銀行業高管或投資人。

The sense of being blindsided by events was summed up by David M. Rubenstein, co-chief executive of the private equity firm Carlyle Group. He told the audience at a panel on Wednesday that they should take everything he said with a grain of salt because his predictions last year were way off.

私募公司凱雷投資集團(Carlyle Group)的聯席首席執行官戴維·D·魯賓斯坦(David M. Rubenstein)對這種猝不及防的感覺進行了總結。在週三的一場討論會上，他告訴觀衆，自己講的話不可全信，因爲他去年的預測就錯得離譜。

“I wouldn’t have predicted oil prices would go down,” Mr. Rubenstein said. “I wouldn’t have predicted U.S. growth would be as strong as it has been, I wouldn’t have predicted the slowdown in some of the emerging markets, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted deflation in Europe.”

“我沒有料到油價會下行，”魯賓斯坦說。“我沒有料到美國的增長會如此強勁，我沒有料到一些新興市場增速放緩，我也絕沒有料到歐洲會出現通縮。”

The sense of nervousness has been heightened by the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier this month. Security at the World Economic Forum, which every year turns the town into a virtual military protectorate, was tightened even further. In a new practice, the Swiss police shined flashlights into the shuttle vans that bring participants to hotels and events, requiring passengers to show their credentials.

本月早些時候巴黎爆發的恐怖襲擊令這種惴惴不安的感覺進一步加深。世界經濟論壇每年都會讓這座小城變得形同軍事堡壘，而這次的安保工作又更上一層樓。瑞士警察採取了一種新措施，會向運送與會者在酒店和活動場館之間穿梭的巴士閃燈，提示乘客展示自己的證件。

“It’s that fear factor,” Anne Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management, said in an interview. “What is going to hit now?”

“就是這種擔憂因素，”安本資產管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的首席投資官安妮·理查茲(Anne Richards)接受採訪時說。“現在又會出現哪種衝擊呢？”

Even recent economic events that are mostly positive create instability, panelists said. The plunge in oil prices is great for consumers, but has undercut the Russian economy, with repercussions for Europe. Mr. Rubenstein said that Russian companies had borrowed $650 billion from Western countries, mostly European banks.

參會者表示，就連看來最正面的一些近期經濟事件也帶來了動盪。油價暴跌對消費者來說是件好事，但它削弱了俄羅斯經濟，從而間接影響到歐洲。魯賓斯坦稱，俄羅斯企業從歐洲國家借走了6500億美元（約合4萬億元人民幣），而主要的出借方是歐洲的銀行。

“If the Russian companies, because of their economies, can’t service that debt, that’s going to be a problem,” he said.

“假如俄羅斯的公司，因爲他們國家的經濟困難而沒有能力償債，那麼就會構成問題，”他說。

Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC Holdings, noted that when regulators tested the resiliency of banks this year, none considered situations in which oil was $50 a barrel. “The last several years have taught us to expect the unexpected and to prepare for the worst,” Mr. Flint said at a different panel discussion.

匯豐控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings)的董事長範智廉(Douglas Flint)指出，當監管機構上次對各大銀行進行壓力測試時，沒有任何人考慮到油價爲每桶50美元的情景。“這幾年給我們的教訓是，準備迎接意外，做最壞的打算，”範智廉在另一場討論會上表示。

The discussions came a day before the European Central Bank was expected to announce that it would begin broad-based bond purchases to try to stimulate the European economy. But there was pessimism that central banks could continue to rescue global economies.

週三的這些討論發生在歐洲央行(European Central Bank)展開行動的頭一天。外界估計，該行會宣佈啓動一項覆蓋面甚廣的債券購買計劃，嘗試以此刺激歐洲經濟。然而，對於各大央行能否持續拯救全球經濟，會上存在悲觀情緒。

“We are looking forward to the E.C.B. announcement tomorrow,” said Min Zhu, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

“我們在期待歐洲央行明天的聲明，”國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)副總裁朱民稱。

But he said that the eurozone economy required policies to stimulate demand, like spending on public infrastructure or changes in laws that restrict hiring and firing. “Interest rates are zero already. What do they do?” Mr. Zhu said of central banks. “We need supply-side policies.”

不過，他表示歐元區經濟還需要刺激需求的政策，比如增加公共基礎設施建設方面的開支，或是改革限制僱傭與解聘的法規。“利率已經是零了。我們還能做什麼？”談到各大央行時，朱民問道。“我們需要供給經濟學方面的政策。”

Even a month ago, no one would have predicted that Switzerland, one of the wealthiest and most stable countries in the world, would become a subject of concern. But the country faces an economic crisis after the Swiss National Bank last week abandoned attempts to check the rise of the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc has risen 20 percent against the euro since then, an increase that made the stay in Davos even more costly than usual and, more important, threatened the competitiveness of Swiss industry.

就在一個月前，還無人能料到，身處世界上最富裕、最穩定國家之列的瑞士會成爲大家擔憂的對象。可是上週，瑞士國家銀行(Swiss National Bank)放棄了控制瑞士法郎兌歐元匯率的做法，一場經濟危機隨即擺在了該國面前。自那以後，瑞郎對歐元升值了20%。這樣的漲幅讓奔赴達沃斯參會的花銷更勝以往，但更重要的是，它威脅到了瑞士各大行業的競爭力。

Axel Weber, chairman of the Swiss bank UBS, said the Swiss central bank “did the right thing” in acknowledging that it could no longer keep a cap on the franc. He predicted that the Swiss currency would retreat from current levels.

瑞銀(UBS)董事長埃克塞爾·韋伯(Axel Weber)認爲，瑞士央行承認已無力承擔對瑞郎設限“是正確之舉”。他預測，瑞郎將會從當前的水平上貶值。

“There are challenges and pressures, but I think they are manageable,” said Mr. Weber, the former president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank.

“當前存在一些挑戰和壓力，但我認爲是可控的，”韋伯說。他曾擔任德國央行德國聯邦銀行(Bundesbank)的行長。

But he was pessimistic about Europe. Noting that he had appeared at a panel called, “Is Europe Back?” last year at the forum, he said this time around, “Europe’s not back,” adding, “The problems are back.”

不過，他對歐洲持總體悲觀的態度。韋伯指出，他去年曾在達沃斯出席一場名爲《歐洲是否已經迴歸？》的討論會，而到了今年，“歐洲並沒有迴歸，問題卻迴歸了。”

A hint of geopolitical tension, in the otherwise convivial atmosphere at the gathering, emerged at a panel sponsored by The Wall Street Journal that examined why economies and financial markets have become more volatile. Arkady Dvorkovich, deputy prime minister of Russia, was critical of the United States.

世界經濟論壇通常氛圍輕鬆，但在《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)資助的一場討論會上，地緣政治衝突初現端倪。會議關注的是各大經濟體與金融市場爲何變得更爲動盪。俄羅斯副總理阿爾卡季·德沃爾科維奇(Arkady Dvorkovich)對美國展開了批評。

“The problem with American growth, it is more at the expense of other countries sometimes,” said Mr. Dvorkovich, who also called sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation for its behavior in Ukraine “stupid.”

“美國經濟增長的問題在於，有時候更多地以別國爲代價，”德沃爾科維奇說。對於爲了報復俄羅斯在烏克蘭所作所爲而施加的制裁，他也直呼“愚蠢”。

Still, some experts said the gloom was overdone. “The rest of the world will recover over time,” Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University, said on the same panel. “These things don’t last forever.”

雖說如此，還是有專家認爲目前的陰鬱情緒過了頭。“隨着時間的推移，世界其他地方也會復甦，”哈佛大學(Harvard University)經濟學教授肯尼斯·羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)在同一場討論會上說。“這些事情不會沒完沒了。”