大宗商品轉向令世界經濟"變奏"

Few economic forces are more important than commodity prices. When they rise they transfer riches and power from consumers to producers; when they fall, it is as near as anything in economics to a free lunch for consumers. With so much at stake, turning points are important for the global economy. Such a moment appears to be at hand.

沒有幾種經濟要素比大宗商品價格更重要。當大宗商品價格上漲時，它會將財富和實力從消費者轉移到生產者；當價格下跌時，對於消費者而言，這幾乎像是經濟學裏的免費午餐。大宗商品價格關係重大，其轉折點對於全球經濟很重要。眼前似乎就將迎來這樣一個時刻。

Across a wide range of commodities, prices are falling and sometimes falling fast. The Bloomberg commodity index – which acts as a benchmark for commodity investments – fell to its lowest level in five years this week. Prices are being pushed down by the increasing supply of most commodities and a weakening global economy, including a slowing China, the world’s largest consumer for many of these raw materials. Whether it is oil, corn, iron ore, coal, cotton or copper, prices are falling quickly.

多種大宗商品價格都在下跌，有時是快速下跌。彭博(Bloomberg)大宗商品指數（大宗商品投資的一個基準）近期降至5年最低水平。多數大宗商品供應不斷增加以及全球經濟（包括中國經濟）日益放緩正推低大宗商品價格。中國是很多大宗商品的最大消費國。不管是石油、玉米、鐵礦石、煤炭、棉花還是銅，價格都在快速下跌。

The International Monetary Fund estimates that global commodity prices are 8.3 per cent lower than at the start of the year. In its recent World Economic Outlook report, the IMF demonstrated how a $20-a-barrel oil price decline would increase the real income of consumers, boosting domestic demand and growth in consuming countries and hitting exports and demand in producer nations. The fund estimated the net effect would increase world gross domestic product 0.5 per cent alone, and if economic confidence were improved as a result, that figure could rise to about 1.2 per cent. Gavyn Davies, chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management, says the figures were plausible and by any measure “quite big”.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計，全球大宗商品價格較今年年初下滑8.3%。在最近公佈的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)報告中，IMF稱，石油價格每桶下跌20美元將增加消費者的實際收入、提振消費國的國內需求和經濟增速，同時衝擊產油國的出口和需求。IMF估計，其淨效應將是令全球GDP擴大0.5%，如果經濟信心因此改善，這一數字可能會升至1.2%左右。Fulcrum資產管理公司董事長加文•戴維斯(Gavyn Davies)表示，這些估計數字是合理的，而且以任何標準衡量都”很大“。

Andrew Kenningham, economist at Capital Economics, has calculated that an equivalent change would transfer $640bn – or nearly 1 per cent of world GDP – from oil producers to consumers. “Our rule of thumb is that consumers typically spend half of their windfall. This is $320bn or around 0.5 per cent of world GDP, ” he says.

根據凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)經濟學家安德魯•肯寧厄姆(Andrew Kenningham)的計算，同樣的變動將把6400億美元財富（佔全球GDP的近1%）從產油國轉移到消費國。他表示：“我們的經驗是，消費者一般會將意外收穫的一半用於支出。那就是3200億美元，約佔全球GDP的0.5%。”

With other commodity prices falling alongside oil, the effects can be expected to amplify, benefiting global growth but also creating losers as well as winners. The effects are most obvious in growth forecasts. In 2011, when commodity prices were expected to remain persistently high, the IMF forecast Brazil’s economy would expand more than 4 per cent in 2014, a rate it would be able to sustain into the medium term. Now it is expecting near stagnation this year with a slow climb towards a 3 per cent medium-term rate. Russia, which also has to deal with the added impact of western sanctions, shares the same fate.

由於其他大宗商品價格會隨着油價一起下跌，預計這種效應將放大，令全球增長受益，但在創造贏家的同時也會產生輸家。增長預期所受的影響最爲明顯。2011年，當時市場預計大宗商品價格將長期處於高位，IMF預測，2014年巴西經濟將增長逾4%，並且中期內將能夠保持這一增速。如今，IMF預測，今年巴西經濟將接近滯漲，中期增速將緩慢升至3%的水平。俄羅斯也是同樣的命運，況且該國還要應對西方制裁的衝擊。

Some effects can be complicated, however. As well as redistributing money between countries, there are also winners and losers within the same nation. While falling oil prices act as a tax cut for US motorists, it hits the country’s shale oil industry. In 2011, the surge in food prices was a boon to Brazilian agriculture but a huge burden on its urban poor.

然而，一些影響可能是複雜的。除了在不同國家之間出現資金再分配之外，同一國家中也會有贏家和輸家。對於美國的駕車者而言，油價不斷下跌的影響就像是減稅，但這會衝擊該國的頁岩油行業。2011年，食品價格飆升對巴西農業是一種利好，但對於該國城市窮人而言卻是一項沉重的負擔。

Exchange rate movements can complicate the picture, since most commodities are priced in dollars. In parts of Asia currencies are falling relative to the dollar. As a result says Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, consumers in India are not seeing big gains because oil prices in rupees are not falling fast, and in countries such as Indonesia, the government is offsetting lower fuel prices with cuts in fuel subsidies so, again, consumers have not seen the full benefit. After taking account of currency and tax changes, Mr Currie says the US is the only country in which consumers are likely to see a big benefit.

匯率變動可能會令情況複雜化，因爲多數大宗商品都是以美元計價。亞洲一些地區的貨幣兌美元匯率正在下跌。因此，高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品研究主管傑夫•居里(Jeff Currie)表示，印度消費者沒有看到巨大的好處，因爲以印度盧比計算油價沒有快速下跌，而在印尼等國，因應燃料價格下跌，政府也削減了燃料補貼，因此，消費者也沒有看到完全的好處。在計入匯率和稅收變動後，居里表示，美國是唯一一個消費者可能會看到巨大好處的國家。

As a big consumer and importer, the eurozone will benefit from the turndown in commodity prices, but economists warn Europe must avoid getting too much of this good thing. Falling commodity prices could tip the eurozone into outright deflation, potentially delaying consumer purchases on the expectation of even lower future prices.

作爲一個消費和進口大戶，歐元區將受益於大宗商品價格下跌，但經濟學家警告稱，歐洲不能高興過了頭。大宗商品價格持續下跌可能會令歐元區陷入徹底的通縮，這可能會促使消費者推遲購買行爲，因爲人們預測未來價格會繼續下跌。

This is all theoretical, but could undermine efforts by the European Central Bank to stabilise medium-term expectation of inflation to about 2 per cent a year. Thomas Harjes of Barclays says: “Market-based measures of inflation expectations are increasingly indicating that the ECB is at risk of losing its credibility to return inflation back to the close-to-2 per cent target, even over the medium term.”

這都是理論，但可能會破壞歐洲央行(ECB)將中期通脹預期穩定在每年約2%的努力。巴克萊(Barclays)的托馬斯•哈吉斯(Thomas Harjes)表示：“基於市場的通脹預期指標越來越顯示，歐洲央行有喪失公信力的風險，市場可能認爲其無法將通脹恢復到接近2%的目標水平，即便是在中期內。”