美國年賺35億美元基金經理對市場感到憂心忡忡
The nation's highest paid hedge fund manager is concerned about the market.
美國薪資最高的對衝基金經理對市場感到憂心忡忡。"There are times to make money," says David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management. "This is a time to not lose money. I think it is a nervous time."
經營着Appaloosa Management的大衛o泰珀說：“有些時機是用來賺錢的，而眼下要避免虧損。我覺得目前的局勢令人感到不安。”On Wednesday, Tepper cautioned fellow fund managers and other attendees of this year's SALT Investing Conference in Las Vegas. Tepper, who rarely talks about the market publicly, was recently named the highest paid hedge fund manager by Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine. The magazine said he made $3.5 billion last year.
週三，泰珀在今年拉斯維加斯SALT投資大會上對基金經理同行和其他與會人員發出了一番警示。泰珀很少在公開場合聊市場，他最近被《機構投資者》（Institutional Investor）雜誌的《阿爾法》（Alpha）專刊評選爲薪資最高的對衝基金經理。這本雜誌稱，他去年掙了35億美元。
Tepper's biggest concerns hinge on economic growth prospects and its effect on stock prices. He said his opinion would be different if the economy was growing at 4%. But he said that, even adjusting for the weather, the economy looks to be growing much more slowly than he expected. Indeed, U.S. GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014.
泰珀最大的擔憂在於經濟前景及其對股票價格的影響。他說，如果經濟增長率能達到4%，他就不會產生這樣的擔憂。然而他說，即便考慮極端天氣對經濟的影響，經濟的增速似乎也要比他預期的緩慢得多。確實，美國2014年第一季度GDP增速只有0.1%。That's a problem, Tepper says, because stocks on average are trading at 16 times next year's expected earnings. That means investors are expecting relatively strong bottom lines. But if the economy is growing more slowly than expected, profits are likely to disappoint.
泰珀說，這是個問題，因爲目前的股價平均水平隱含16倍的遠期市盈率，意味着投資者預期企業的盈利會相對強勁。但如果經濟增長慢於預期，那麼利潤有可能會令人們大失所望。Tepper says he is also concerned about deflation, given the sluggish economic growth prospects. "If we have price pressure as well, then that's really going to push down profits," says Tepper.
泰珀指出，鑑於經濟增長前景平軟，通縮也令人擔憂。泰珀說：“如果我們再遇到價格壓力，那麼利潤真的會被壓低。”Tepper says that while he is normally seen as a bullish investor, he currently has a portion of his money in cash. "I'm not saying go short," Tepper says, which is the Wall Street term for betting against the market. "But don't be super long either."
泰珀表示，儘管人們通常認爲他是多頭，但他目前仍然持一部分現金。“我並不是建議大家做空，”泰珀稱，用華爾街的說法就是別逆市而爲。“但也別拼命做多。” (財富中文網)
