大宗商品走軟致使中國市場遭遇拋售
Growing signs of weakening Chinese demand for commodities are filling a void created by murky economic data and sparking a selloff in the country's currency, its stock market and in the coal, copper and iron ore it buys.
中國大宗商品需求走軟跡象日益明顯，導致人民幣、國內股市以及煤、銅和鐵礦石等資產普遍下跌。The selloff rattled markets across the region Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei falling 2.6%--its biggest decline in more than a month--and the offshore yuan, which is freely traded outside China, dropping to its lowest level in eight months.
週三中國市場的拋售波及了整個亞洲地區。日經指數跌2.6%，創一個多月來最大跌幅；離岸人民幣匯率跌至八個月來最低水平。'Growth is slowing, risks are rising, and that I think that has probably led to a recalibration of portfolios,' said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research at Perpetual Investments in Sydney, which manages 29 billion Australian dollars. 'China has gone from the savior of the world to one of the weakest links in the chain.'
悉尼Perpetual Investments 投資市場研究主管Matthew Sherwood表示，經濟增長正在放緩，風險正在升高，他認爲這可能已經促使人們重新調整投資組合。他表示，中國已經從全球經濟拉動引擎變成了最薄弱的一環。
Iron ore traders say buyers are standing on the sidelines and stockpiles are rising in China's ports as a drop in exports and tightening credit make steel mills reluctant to add inventory. Copper prices are down on fears that inventory would flood the market as companies dump the metal to unwind risky trades.
鐵礦石交易員稱，買家正在場邊觀望；由於出口下滑且信貸收緊，鋼廠不願採購鐵礦石，中國港口的庫存不斷累積。另外隨着某些公司對銅融資交易平倉，人們擔心大量銅庫存涌進市場，銅價也出現下跌。At the Grand Canal Northern Port, a run-down coal loading station in Shandong province, there was no activity Wednesday afternoon. 'Things aren't so good now. Coal prices just aren't stable,' said Meng Fanqiang, a manager at the port.
週三下午，位於山東的京杭北港顯得十分冷清。港口經理孟繁強（音）說，現在情況不太好，煤價不穩定。The port, which serves barges plying a canal completed during the Sui Dynasty around A.D. 600 to transport grain from southern China to the north, at its peak shipped four barges of coal a day, each weighing 2,000 to 3,000 tons. Today, the port ships two barges daily and gets paid less for each shipload.
該港爲京杭大運河上的船隻提供接駁服務，高峯時日均煤炭發運量爲四船次，每船次裝載量爲2,000至3,000噸。而目前該港日均發運量爲兩船次，每船次運費也下降了。China's stock market, one of the world's worst performers this year, sank to its lowest level in nearly eight months. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.2% at 1997.69 on Wednesday, after briefly touching 1974.38, its lowest level since July 30, 2013.
週三，中國股市跌至近八個月低位。基準上證綜合指數收盤跌0.2%，至1997.69點。該指數盤中一度短暫跌至1974.38點，爲2013年7月30日以來最低水平。中國股市是今年全球表現最差的股市之一。'Pessimism is permeating every corner of the stock market at the moment, ' said Tangyue Yanglin, a senior investment adviser at Everbright Securities.
光大證券(Everbright Securities)資深投資顧問Tangyue Yanglin表示，眼下悲觀情緒瀰漫股市的每一個角落。The yuan weakened further against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, falling 0.1%. It has dropped 1.5% this year. The decline is a reversal from years of steady appreciation, including a 2.9% gain in 2013.
人民幣兌美元匯率週三進一步走軟，跌0.1%，年初迄今累計下跌1.5%。這波下跌行情逆轉了人民幣兌美元匯率多年穩步上升的趨勢，去年人民幣兌美元累計升值2.9%。Copper extended a dramatic three-day dive, falling a further 3.2% in Shanghai, bringing its decline for the year to nearly 15%. The price for premium hard coking coal from Australia fell 2.4% on Wednesday and is down 13% this year.
銅價延續此前三天連續跳水的趨勢，週三滬銅再跌3.2%，年初迄今累計跌幅近15%。週三澳大利亞優質硬鏈焦煤價格跌2.4%，今年以來累計跌13%。Economic concerns about China intensified over the weekend after it said exports fell 18.1% in February, far worse than the 5% increase that economists had expected and following a 10.6% expansion in January. The country also posted a rare $22.98 billion trade deficit for last month.
市場對中國經濟的擔憂在上週末加劇，此前出爐的數據表明2月份中國出口同比下降18.1%，此前經濟學家預期同比上升5%，1月份同比上升10.6%。2月份中國也罕見地出現229.8億美元貿易逆差。Investors are awaiting data on Chinese industrial production and fixed-asset investment set to be released Thursday. Economists expect industrial production rose 9.5% in January and February.
投資者正等待定於週四發佈的中國工業增加值和固定資產投資數據。經濟學家預計今年1月和2月工業增加值同比上升9.5%。Economic data are usually murky at the start of the year in China because of the long Lunar New Year holiday, which some years falls in January and others in February. In addition, concerns have been heightened this year by a slowdown in growth in 2013 that came as Beijing pushed to reform the economy.
每年年初中國的經濟數據通常都不太好看，因爲此期間正值中國傳統農曆新年。此外今年外界對中國經濟的擔憂加劇，因爲去年中國經濟增速放緩，同時中國政府正力圖推進經濟改革。The big debate among analysts has been whether the Chinese government will step in if growth slows. 'The balance between growth and reform will soon be tested,' said Minggao Shen, head of China research at Citigroup. The government seems to be leaning toward defending growth through 'milder Chinese medicine rather than radical surgery,' Mr. Shen said.
分析師之間爭論的焦點在於如果經濟增速放緩，中國政府是否會插手干預。花旗集團(Citigroup)中國研究部主管沈明高稱，我們很快就將試探增長與改革之間的平衡點。沈明高表示，中國政府似乎傾向於通過更爲溫和的中醫療法而非激進的外科手術來保證經濟增長。The latest wave of selling was driven by fears that another Chinese company was running into financial trouble. Shares of Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., a power-equipment maker that has made bad bets on the solar industry in recent years, fell 5.1%, their daily downside limit, and its bonds were suspended from trading for a second day.
對另一家中國上市公司可能陷入財務困境的擔心引發A股最新一波拋售潮。保定天威保變電氣股份有限公司(Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., , 簡稱：天威保變)週三跌停，跌幅爲5.1%，其公司債連續第二天被暫停交易。該公司近年來因錯押光伏產業前景而業績不佳。The share selloff came after the company, which is based in northern China's Hebei province, said overnight that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has disqualified its corporate bonds from being used as collateral for short-term lending among exchange investors.
天威保變股票遭拋售前，上海證券交易所發佈公告稱，該公司發行的“11天威債”不再符合上海證券交易所債券質押式回購交易的基本條件，自 2014 年 3 月 13 日起，上海證券交易所不再將其作爲回購質押券納入質押庫，並停止債券質押式回購入庫申報。Zhang Caibo, an official from Baoding Tianwei, said the company's bonds would be suspended from trading until it releases its 2014 annual report. She declined to comment further.
天威保變一位管理人士Zhang Caibo稱，在發佈2014年報前該公司債券將被暫停交易。此人拒絕進一步置評。Baoding Tianwei's misfortunes raised fresh concerns about the stresses in China's creaky financial system, after midsize solar-energy company Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. on Friday became the first Chinese company to default on its domestic corporate bonds.
天威保變的一系列問題再次引發市場對中國問題重重的金融系統所承受的諸多壓力的擔憂。上週五，一家規模中等的光伏企業上海超日太陽能科技股份有限公司(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.)成爲中國內地首家公司債違約的上市企業。Iron ore prices are down 6% this week, as investors worry about rising supply and weakening demand. 'The substantial decline in exports and significant increases in both Chinese port stocks of iron ore and finished steel inventories have sparked fears that spot cargoes could face prolonged downward pressure,' said Kash Kamal, a London-based analyst at broker Sucden Financial. 'As a result, end users have held off from immediate purchases in the hopes of further declines.'
鐵礦石價格本週下跌6%，因投資者擔心供應增加和需求疲軟的現象共存。經紀商蘇克敦金融(Sucden Financial)駐倫敦的分析師Kash Kamal稱，中國出口大幅下滑，港口鐵礦石和成品鋼材庫存大幅增加引發市場擔憂，即鐵礦石現貨價格可能面臨長期下行壓力。因預計鐵礦石價格進一步下跌，終端用戶已暫停購買。Tim Condon, economist at ING, said the lack of transparency in China's financial policies often generates uncertainties and anxiety for investors. 'Sentiment has definitely turned sour toward China and it does raise the question why it's so easy to accentuate the negative in this country,' he said.
ING經濟學家Tim Condon稱中國金融政策缺乏透明度往往令投資者產生不確定性和焦慮。市場關於中國的人氣肯定受到衝擊，這也提出一個問題，即爲什麼有關中國的負面消息總是如此容易被突出。While Beijing's recent move to guide the yuan lower is widely considered a tactic to deter excessive 'hot money' inflows, its tolerance of an extra supply of the local currency flooding the nation's financial system is also being interpreted as a stimulus effort.
雖然市場普遍認爲最近中國政府引導人民幣匯率走低是防止過多“熱錢”流入的一種策略，但中國政府對金融系統人民幣供應過剩的容忍也被解讀爲一種刺激政策。'When it comes to the low interbank rates, we don't know what policy makers are thinking about. Is this policy easing because the economy is slowing?' said Mr. Condon.
Condon表示，近期中國銀行同業拆息較低，我們不知道決策者思路是什麼。這是因爲經濟增速放緩而採取的寬鬆政策嗎？The seven-day repurchase agreement rate, a benchmark for short-term loans among banks, fell to its lowest level in nearly 22 months Wednesday. It closed at 2.23%, down from 2.26% Tuesday and sending to its lowest point since May 31, 2012, when it hit 2.17%.
銀行間市場七天回購協議利率週三跌至近22個月來最低水平，收於2.23%，低於週二的2.26%，創2012年5月31日來最低水平，當時該利率跌至2.17%。Chinese financial institutions issued 644.5 billion yuan ($104.9 billion) in new yuan loans in February, sharply down from 1.32 trillion yuan in January. Total social financing, a broader measurement of credit in the economy, reached 938.7 billion yuan in February, well below 2.58 trillion yuan in the previous month.
中國金融機構2月份新增人民幣貸款6,445億元（約合1,049億美元），明顯低於1月份人民幣1.32萬億元的規模。2月份社會融資總量爲人民幣9,387億元，遠低於1月份人民幣2.58萬億元的規模。
