微博預測股市晴雨 準確率可達八成

Millions of messages about trivial matters are posted on Twitter every day, but one group of hedge fund managers are using them as a crystal ball for market fluctuations - and it's having a big impact.
　　很多無關緊要的事情每天都會在微博客上，但是卻有一組套保基金的管理人員將它用作預測市場波動的水晶球，並且，影響巨大。

Analysts at London’s Derwent Capital Markets - described as 'Europe's first social media-based hedge fund' - has launched a ?25million fund based on research that suggests tweets foretell whether markets will go up or down.

在被描述爲歐洲第一的社會媒體的倫敦達文特資本市場的分析家發起了一個2500萬的立足於研究的微博客能否真正預測市場走向的基金。

It shows that if the mood of the population goes up, the market follows. The Mayfair company use a program that scans Twitter for keywords to work out what the world's 'mood' is - and invest money accordingly. And so far the results have been positive.

它顯示出如果人們的情緒呈上升趨勢，那市場亦同。梅菲爾公司運用了一個能監視微博客關鍵詞的程序，希望用這個能看到世界情緒的變化，然後相應的進行資金投資。並且到目前爲止情況都很樂觀。

The Twitter-analysis program was written by Johan Bollen, professor of informatics and computing at Indiana University and he used it to predict market movements at the Dow Jones in New York with 87.6 per cent accuracy last October.

這個微博客的分析程序是由印第安納大學信息和計算系的教授約翰·保倫完成的。他用這個來預測紐約股市的道瓊斯指數，並且在上個10月份達到了87.6%的準確率。

Mr Bollen explained how his software can give fund managers the edge: ‘We recorded the sentiment of the online community, but we couldn't prove if it was correct. So we looked at the Dow Jones to see if there was a correlation. We believed that if the markets fell, then the mood of people on Twitter would fall.

保倫先生解釋了他的軟件是怎樣能給那些基金專家提供幫助的：“我們記錄那些在線社區上的人的情緒變化，但是我們卻不能證明那些是不是正確的。所以我們就主義者道瓊斯指數，看看他們之間是不是有關係。我們相信如果市場不太景氣，那麼，微博客上的人的情緒也相應的會進入低潮期。”

‘But we realised it was the other way round - that a drop in the mood or sentiment of the online community would precede a fall in the market.'

“我們也同樣意識到微博客上人們情緒的低落與市場的不景氣相比，到來的更早。”

Paul Hawtin, Derwent's founder and fund manager, said: ‘Investors have always accepted that markets are driven by sentiment, mainly fear and greed. When people are greedy the markets go up and when they are fearful they go down.

達文特的創建者和基金的經理保羅·哈丁，說“投資者已經都接受說市場其實是被人們的情緒所左右的，主要是害怕和貪心。當人們普遍存在渴望的時候，市場就會呈現上升趨勢；而當人們心存恐懼的時候，市場就會呈下降趨勢。”

It looks, then, like Derwent could be on to a good thing, but computers aren't always reliable - as per biologist Paul Ehrlich's quote, 'To err is human - but to really foul things up requires a computer.'

看起來，這樣的東西似乎是很好的，但是同時電腦又不是那麼可信，就如一位生物學家保羅·歐利希引用“人無完人”說，其實真正犯錯的有可能是電腦。

Earlier this year director and writer Dan Mirvish noticed that whenever actress Anne Hathaway was in the news, stocks in Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway rose sharply.

今年的早些時候，丹·馬維舒注意到不論何時當安妮·海瑟薇出現在新聞裏的時候，在華倫·巴菲特的公司的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的股票就會瘋漲。

Mr Mirvish believes it’s because robotic trading programmes are registering mentions of ‘Hathaway’ and wrongly assuming it’s for Berkshire Hathaway.

馬維舒先生相信這是因爲這個自動的系統錯將海瑟薇認成了哈撒韋。

Mirvish cites six other examples of similar spikes, including for when Anne Hathaway movies Rachel Getting Married, and Alice in Wonderland premiered.

同時，馬維舒先生也舉了另外其他六個和這個類似的例子，這其中包括當安妮·海瑟薇的電影雷切爾的婚禮，結婚大作戰和愛麗絲漫遊奇際首映的例子。