中國股災熱點問題解答 The Chinese stock market
The Chinese stock market rout in recent weeks has prompted the country’s government to act aggressively to stop the slide. If stocks continue to fall, that could erode consumer confidence in China and slow further the country’s already weakening economy, which would have painful implications for the global economy.
中國股市近幾周的崩潰已促使政府採取積極措施以阻止下滑。如果股票繼續下跌，將損害中國消費者的信心並使已然減速的經濟增長進一步放緩，而這對於全球經濟將影響慘痛。What has happened?
發生了什麼？Chinese stocks have surged almost unimpeded, more than doubling in the 12 months ending June 12. Millions of working-class and middle-class Chinese families bet heavily on stocks, often borrowing money to do so and further spurring the rise.
中國股市曾一路飆升，在6月12日之前的一年裏上漲了超過一倍。數百萬中國的工薪階層和中產階級對股市下了重注，經常借錢炒股，而這也進一步刺激了上漲。
But the rally defied fundamentals, prompting concerns of a bubble. Stocks rose even as the Chinese economy was slowing. While foreigners and domestic institutions bought shares in large companies with fairly stable businesses, working-class and middle-class families mainly bought inexpensive shares in small and medium-size companies, and kept buying these shares simply because they were rising. Weak balance sheets and chronic problems with corporate governance at many of these companies were swept aside.
但上漲與經濟基本面並不相符，催生了對於泡沫的擔憂。股票在中國經濟增速放緩之時仍在上漲。當外國投資者和國內的機構購買經營穩定的大型公司股票時，工薪階層和中產階級家庭購買價格較低的中小型公司股票，並因爲這些股票的價格在上漲而不斷購入。許多這些公司脆弱的資產負債表和長期的公司管理問題被擱置一邊。In recent months, the Chinese stocks have experienced brief periods of weakness, as investors started to grow concerned that the market was getting overheated. The government, though, has regularly reassured investors, helping to steady the markets.
最近幾個月，中國股市經歷了短暫的虛弱期，因爲投資者對於市場過熱的憂慮開始增加。即便如此，政府仍頻繁地安撫投資者以穩定市場。Now, investors are losing faith. After a drop of more than 7 percent in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on June 26, the Chinese central bank responded the next day with an interest rate cut, saying it was acting to shore up the economy. A broad slide in stocks continued, prompting the government to take aggressive action.
現在，投資者失去了信心。在6月26日滬深兩市大跌超過7%後，中國的中央銀行在第二天以下調利率作爲迴應，稱這是爲了提振經濟。但股市持續大規模下跌，促使政府採取積極的行動。What is China doing about the sell-off?
對於股價下跌，中國正在如何應對？Since June 25, the Chinese government has tried a series of policy measures to halt the slide. It has cut interest rates, made more loans available to buyers of stocks and promised to investigate anyone involved in market manipulation.
自6月25日起，中國政府已經採取了一系列政策措施以阻止下跌。政府降低了利率，增加了投資者可獲得的貸款，並承諾調查任何涉嫌操縱市場的人。The government made its boldest move on July 4, orchestrating a plan for 21 brokerages to put $19.4 billion in a fund to buy the shares of large companies. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges suspended 28 pending initial public offerings and said that all deposits paid for shares would be returned to the would-be buyers, freeing up cash that could be invested in existing stocks. Government agencies announced on July 5 that they would lend money to brokerages so that the brokerages could lend the money to investors who wanted to buy shares.
政府在7月4日採取了最爲勇敢的舉措，策劃了一項計劃，將21家證券公司將出資194億美元（1200億人民幣）建立基金購買大型公司的股票。上海和深圳證券交易所暫停了28個新股的發行計劃，並稱將向未來的購買者退還所有已支付的定金，以釋放更多現金投入到現有的股票中。政府機構還在7月5日宣佈將向證券公司提供貸款，之後證券公司將可以向有意願購買股票的投資者提供資金。Following the move, large company shares held most of their value on July 6. But the shares of small and medium-size companies, widely held by retail investors, kept falling.
救市舉措之後，大部分大型公司的股票價格在7月6日止跌。但大量散戶投資者持有的中小型公司股票仍持續下跌。How exposed are foreign investors?
外國投資者受影響程度如何？The Chinese markets have only recently started to open up to outside investors, so overseas players are not heavily exposed to the downturn. Such investors own an estimated 4 percent of Chinese shares. And they have been heavily concentrated in large companies, which have not been as volatile as their smaller brethren.
中國股市纔剛剛向外國投資者開放，所以海外買家並未受到下跌的嚴重影響。這類投資者持有大約4%的中國股票。而這些股票高度集中在並不像中小型公司那般不穩定的大型公司。But stock market routs can quickly spread. The Hong Kong market withstood previous bouts of selling, but fell on July 6 after the Chinese government’s moves. And foreigners have invested heavily in the Hong Kong market, often as a proxy for mainland China.
但是股市的下跌能夠很快蔓延。香港股市抵擋住了此前的幾輪拋售，但在7月6日政府的行動之後下挫。而且外國投資者在經常作爲內地股市代言者的香港股市大量投資。Will China’s stock market troubles affect the global economy?
中國股市的問題會影響全球經濟嗎？Possibly.
這是有可能的。China has the world’s second-largest economy. It is the biggest importer of commodities, from countries like Australia and Brazil. China is also a huge buyer of factory equipment and other machinery in Germany and other places. If the Chinese stock market slump damages consumer confidence, it could lead to a slowdown in those purchases.
中國是世界第二大經濟體，也是澳大利亞和巴西等國商品的最大進口國。中國也是德國以及其他國家重要的工廠設備和其他機械的買家。如果中國股市的下跌損害了消費者信心，這將導致此類採購的減緩。The stock market weakness, should it spread to the Chinese economy over the long term, could prompt Beijing to reassess its overseas loans and investments. Many countries, industries and companies have come to depend on Chinese money to fund their own growth. But Chinese outbound investment could still increase if companies and individuals seek safety overseas.
股市的衰弱如果長期蔓延到整個中國經濟，可能促使北京重新審視其海外貸款和投資。許多國家的行業和公司的發展都依賴中國的資金。但是如果公司和個人到海外尋求資金安全，中國的境外投資可能還會上升。
