捉迷藏執殺刀 金正恩在折騰什麼

The recent disappearance of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader, from public view for more than 40 days has stirred enormous speculation and concern. His mysterious absence was further amplified by the country’s most senior military leader’s unexpected appearance in South Korea along with a high-level team to discuss the terms for renewed North-South diplomacy. These unusual comings and goings were the subject of feverish conjecture and rumour-mongering, with supposed experts suggesting that the “Young Genius” was either deposed in a coup and replaced by his sister, recovering from ankle surgery after an unfortunate fall in teetering high heels or recuperating in hiding after a disfiguring injury. Much of the more outlandish speculation seemed to be resolved by his reappearance in public on Tuesday last week, when he showed up in North Korean state media with a noticeable limp and black cane – perfect accessories to the already Bondish quality of his villainous reputation. Official television in Pyongyang offered helpfully that he had been experiencing “discomfort”.

朝鮮年輕的領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)最近從公衆視線中消失了40余天，引發了大量猜想和擔憂。令事態更加戲劇化的是，在他神祕失蹤期間，朝鮮軍方最高人物帶領一支高級別團隊出人意料地出現在韓國，重啓南北外交。這些不同尋常的動向點燃了人們的猜測熱情，導致流言四起。一些所謂的專家提出無奇不有的種種猜想：朝鮮發生了政變，“年輕的天才”已被廢黜，被他的妹妹接替；穿高跟皮鞋的他不幸摔跤，接受踝骨手術後正在康復；因傷毀容後躲起來恢復。上週二金正恩公開露面之後，大部分猜想都不攻自破了。那天，金正恩明顯一瘸一拐地出現在朝鮮官方媒體上，拄着黑色柺杖，跟他本來就具備的007反面人物形象十分相稱。平壤官方電視臺隔靴搔癢般地解釋稱，金正恩此前“身體不適”。

What are we to make of all this? The basic questions about the durability of Mr Kim’s leadership and his relationship with his closest colleagues, family and the military, together with the seemingly contradictory overtures with South Korea – including calls to renew dialogue interspersed with exchanges of gunfire across the Demilitarised Zone – underscore the many uncertainties that are intrinsic to the North Korean drama. Northeast Asia is increasingly integral to the global economy and its economic development is critical to sustaining even lumbering global growth. However, North Korea’s continuing nuclear ambitions and occasional provocations pose significant worries to the fragile region which is beset by internal rivalries, historical disagreements and mutual distrust. It is no secret that relations between China and North Korea have frayed recently and there are ample concerns in Beijing that Pyongyang’s nefarious activities undermine China’s larger strategic interests. Still, fraternal Communist ties means the countries remain intertwined, although deeply distrustful of each other.

我們該如何看待這一系列事件？關於金正恩領導地位的持久性、他與他最親密的同僚、家人和軍方的關係，以及朝鮮對韓國貌似自相矛盾的態度（包括一方面呼籲重啓對話，一方面又在非軍事區開火），都存在一些根本的疑問，凸顯出朝鮮問題內在固有的不確定性。東北亞地區對全球經濟越來越不可或缺，這一地區的經濟發展對於支撐哪怕是低速的全球增長至關重要。然而，朝鮮不放棄核野心，時不時進行挑釁，令人們對這個受困於內部角力、歷史分歧和互不信任的脆弱地區產生嚴重擔憂。中國和朝鮮近來關係緊張，這已經不是祕密。北京方面很擔心平壤方面的邪惡行爲損害中國的整體戰略利益。不過，共產黨之間兄弟般的紐帶意味着中朝兩國仍然緊密聯繫在一起，儘管相互之間存在極深的不信任。

Park Gyeun-hye, South Korea’s president, has recently articulated an ambitious vision of a Korea reunited and a peaceful end to division on the peninsula. While most of her plan focuses on the hopes and benefits associated with such a reunion, there is still much worry about the North Korean dissolution or instability that would precede such a conjoining. Most Korea watchers believe that the process of reunification would likely be deeply unsettling and expensive, with the potential for nuclear leakage, mass refugee flows and misunderstandings between the larger surrounding states.

韓國總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)最近詳細描述了實現韓朝統一、和平結束朝鮮半島分裂的遠大願景。儘管她的計劃大多着眼於韓朝統一的希望和好處，但人們仍然非常擔心朝鮮崩潰，擔心統一之前的不穩定。大多數朝鮮問題觀察人士相信，韓朝統一進程很可能帶來極大動盪和極高代價，還可能導致核泄漏、大規模難民潮和周圍幾個大鄰國之間的誤解。

Indeed North Korea is determined not to go down quietly and wishes to have a say in the determination of its own future. Most of the time, it creates news through its provocative activities – shelling islands, sinking ships and staging nuclear tests. The point to all of this is often to create leverage to extract material concessions from the rest of the world. However, as the world has grown less patient with North Korean antics and inured to its attempts at escalating tensions, Pyongyang is left to contemplate new strategies to attract attention to itself.

的確，朝鮮下定決心不悄悄退出歷史舞臺，希望在決定其未來的過程中擁有一份話語權。大多數時候，朝鮮通過挑釁行爲製造新聞——炮轟島嶼、擊沉軍艦、進行核試驗。這一切舉動的目的往往是爲了製造籌碼，迫使其他國家向它提供實質性的好處。然而，隨着國際社會對朝鮮的花招越來越沒有耐心，對其迫使緊張局勢升級的企圖也越來越無動於衷，平壤方面只好設計新的戰略，來吸引人們對它的注意力。

It is not an accident that the international media has paid much attention over the past few weeks to North Korea. Much of the informed commentary counsels that it is necessary to have some lines of communication into Pyongyang given the many uncertainties at play. As a consequence, Tokyo, Seoul and Washington are now establishing back channel schemes for careful and calibrated engagement with North Korea.

過去幾周來，國際媒體對朝鮮給予了許多關注，這並非偶然。許多有識之士建議，鑑於眼下存在的諸多不確定因素，有必要與平壤建立某種聯繫方式。於是，東京、首爾和華盛頓方面眼下都在建立祕密聯絡渠道，以求謹慎、精確地同朝方接觸。

Thus through his temporary disappearance, Mr Kim enticed neighbouring nations to try harder to engage with him. Ultimately, talking to antagonists is often a wise approach. However, North Korea has never been satisfied with simply talk. Its objective has always been to elicit external support to buttress the failing regime.

因此，通過暫時的“失蹤”，金正恩誘使鄰國紛紛更努力地嘗試與他打交道。與敵人對話最終往往是明智之舉。然而，朝鮮從未僅滿足於對話，它的目標一直是獲取外部支持，維繫這個江河日下的政權。

So we await the next move from the interlocutors. Can they lure North Korea to consider peaceful reunification or to renounce its nuclear ambitions? Or, more likely, will this simply be another chapter in Pyongyang’s larger designs to coerce more support from the outside world to remain relevant and live to see another tension-filled day?

那麼，我們就拭目以待，看看有關各方接下來會走出什麼棋吧。他們能不能誘使朝鮮考慮與韓國和平統一？或是放棄核武野心？抑或，可能性更大的情況是，這只不過是平壤方面使出的又一個招數，目的是從外部世界爭取更多支持，以保持自身的相關性，撐到劍拔弩張的下一幕。

The writer is chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the Center for a New American Security. From 2009-13 he served as the assistant US secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs

本文作者是亞洲集團(The Asia Group)主席兼首席執行官、新美國安全中心(Center for a New American Security)董事，2009年至2013年擔任美國東亞及太平洋事務助理國務卿