英國若取消欣克利角核電站項目未必是壞事
The wedding has been called off. The marquee had been put up, the champagne was laid out, some of the guests had flown in — but then, at the very last minute, the unhappy couple decided that they could not live together after all.
婚禮取消了。大帳篷已搭好，香檳已擺好，有些賓客已入場——但接着，就在最後一刻，這對不開心的人決定，他們終究不能生活在一起。
That summarises all too accurately what happened last week as the board of the French power utility EDF approved, albeit by a very thin majority, an ￡18bn investment in the long-delayed nuclear plant at Hinkley Point, only to find it had been abandoned at the altar. Two hours after the EDF announcement, the UK government decided to hold another review of the plan, knowing full well that a full scale celebration had been planned for the following day.
這十分準確地概括了上週發生的事情。當法國電力(EDF)董事會批准了（儘管是以微弱的多數票）針對拖延已久的欣克利角(Hinkley Point)核電站項目的一筆180億英鎊投資，最後卻發現自己在聖壇上被拋棄了。在EDF宣佈批准該項投資兩小時之後，英國政府決定對項目啓動再次審查，儘管其非常清楚，各方已準備在第二天舉行全面慶祝活動。
What happens now? It is hard to see how the wedding can be rearranged. There can be only be two reasons for the review. First, the government is unhappy with the price that had been provisionally agreed. Second, that a new administration in Downing Street dislikes the idea that the Chinese as investors in the Hinkley project should be given the right to operate their own nuclear station at Bradwell in Essex.
眼下發生了什麼？我們很難看出，婚禮如何才能被重新安排。審覈僅僅可能出於兩個原因。第一，英國政府對暫定的價格不滿意。第二，唐寧街(Downing Street)新政府不喜歡如下觀點：作爲欣克利角核電站的投資者，中國人應該被授權在埃塞克斯郡(Essex)的布拉德韋爾(Bradwell)運營自己的核電站。
The government has good reason to be unhappy on both counts. The problem is that changing the terms on either could pose a mortal threat to the project. If the EDF board was nervous at the viability of a deal based on a price of ￡92.50 for each megawatt hour of electricity produced, it is hardly likely to warm to anything less. The majority vote of 10 to 7 in favour could easily be reversed.
英國政府有充分理由對這兩個方面都感到不滿意。問題在於，改變任何一個方面的條款都可能對項目造成致命威脅。如果EDF董事會對一項電力生產價格爲每兆瓦時92.5英鎊的協議的生存能力感到擔心，那麼它幾乎不可能對更低價格產生興趣。10比7的多數支持意見可能會被輕易逆轉。
It is hard to find many people within EDF who really believe in the project. The company has huge problems and does not need another. Unsurprisingly, EDF’s share price rose by 10 per cent within minutes once the prospect that Hinkley might not proceed became -evident.
在EDF內部，找不到很多真心相信欣克利角項目的人。這家公司存在很多艱鉅問題，不需要再增加一個。意料中的是，在欣克利角項目或許不能推進的前景變明朗之後，EDF股價在幾分鐘之內上漲了10%。
Equally it is hard to see who will step into fund the project if the Chinese are not given exactly what they want.
同樣，我們很難看到，如果中國人得不到他們想要的，誰將介入進來爲欣克利角項目提供資金。
What next? For EDF, the humiliation of a cancelled wedding will be followed by a retreat into its French heartland to sort out a host of outstanding problems, from the failure to construct the nuclear plants at Flamanville in northern France and Olkiluoto in Finland to the forced takeover of Areva, France’s other main nuclear business.
接下來怎麼辦？對EDF而言，在遭受婚禮取消的羞辱之後，該公司將回撤到法國腹地，去解決一堆懸而未決的問題——從未能在法國北部的弗拉芒維爾(Flamanville)和芬蘭的奧爾基洛託(Olkiluoto)建設核電站，到被迫接管法國另一家主要核電企業阿海琺(Areva)。
Some in the company may want to sell off EDF’s existing assets in the UK, including the marginal retail business and the fleet of ageing nuclear stations dating back to the 1970s that are due to be retired over the next decade. The challenge will be to find a buyer.
EDF公司內部有些人或許想廉價出售位於英國的既有資產，包括無足輕重的零售業務，以及可追溯到1970年代、日益老化的核電站。這些核電站將在未來十年內退役。挑戰將是爲它們找到一個買家。
For the UK government, it is essential to ensure the electricity that Hinkley was supposed to provide can be replaced from other sources. This is not impossible, but will require a degree of planning not evident in UK energy policy in recent years.
對於英國政府來說，重要的是確保原本應該由欣克利角核電站供應的電力可以通過其他方式補上。這並不是不可能，但是需要一定的規劃，而近年來英國能源政策在這方面並不清晰。
There are potentially lower-cost nuclear providers whose projects can now be accelerated. Money, rather than technology, is the biggest challenge. If the government wants new nuclear as part of the energy mix, there is a strong case for using itshe UK Government’s own credit rather than relying on costly private financial options. Thirty-year money is readily available at very attractive rates to the right borrower.
有一些成本可能更低的核供應商，它們的項目如今可以加速推進了。最大的挑戰是資金，而不是技術。如果政府希望把新核能作爲能源結構的一部分，它有強有力的理由利用自己的信貸，而非依靠成本高昂的私人融資方案。對於這個借款人來說，30年期的借貸觸手可得，且利率非常有吸引力。
An alternative source of power is natural gas, which is plentiful and cheap. Secure long-term supplies could be signed up quickly and could also be used to back out coal close down coal-fired power stations more quickly than planned. New gas-fired power stations will be needed and the key step is the establishment of a viable set of “capacity payments” to ensure the investment is made.
一種可替代能源來源是天然氣，儲量豐富且價格低廉。有保障的長期供應可以很快簽約，也可以被用來推動燃煤發電廠比計劃中更快關閉。英國需要新的天然氣發電廠，關鍵一步是建立一套可行的“容量電價”方案來確保獲得投資。
Then there is energy efficiency. Demand for energy has fallen by more than 15 per cent in the UK over the past decade, but much more is possible using existing technology. Cutting another 15 per cent would cover a large part of the gap left by Hinkley. Energy efficiency has long been the neglected Cinderella of British energy policy and the UK has a lot to learn from other countries whose record in this area is stronger.
接下來是能源效率的問題。過去十年，英國對能源的需求下滑了15%以上，但是利用現有技術的話可能讓需求下滑得更多。需求再減少15%，將彌補因欣克利角核電站停建造成的一大部分電力缺口。長期以來，能源效率一直是英國能源政策中不受重視的一個方面，英國有很多地方需要從其他在這方面更強的國家學習。
Finally, the scope for using renewables such as wind and solar is growing. Costs are falling, as is the need for subsidies. The scale of supply from renewables cannot yet match the amount of power from a large-scale nuclear plant but continued advances in technology are opening up significant new possibilities. Increasing the use of renewables should be matched by a directed programme of research and development into the most attractive possibilities, including energy storage.
最後一點，風力和太陽能等可再生能源的利用空間在不斷擴大。成本在下降，補貼需求也在下滑。目前可再生能源提供的供電規模還無法企及大型核電站的發電量，但是技術上的不斷改進正在開啓重要的新可能。在加大利用可再生能源的同時，應針對最具吸引力的可能性（包括能源儲存）配套制定一個有指導的研發計劃。
An unconsummated wedding is an embarrassment — a costly exercise that leaves a bad taste. But sometimes it represents the right choice. Life goes on. And with time and reflection, the pain of taking the difficult decision to halt what had seemed inevitable can turn to relief.
未完成的婚禮令人尷尬——儀式成本昂貴，體驗卻十分糟糕。但是，這有時代表着正確的選擇。生活還要繼續。隨着時間推移，人們反思後會發現，做出艱難決定、叫停似乎是不可避免的事情，這種痛苦可能會變成解脫。
