50年後亞裔將成美最大移民羣體
The ranks of immigrants and their children will grow to hit a record share of the US population in the second half of this century, new projections show, with Asian immigration taking over as the major source of population growth.
皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)一項新的預測顯示，本世紀下半葉，外來移民及其子女在美國人口中的佔比將升至創紀錄水平，亞裔移民將接棒成爲美國人口增長的主要來源。
The forecasts show the extent to which immigration will reshape the US population in the coming decades, even as politicians including Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump use hostility towards foreigners to appeal to significant parts of the electorate.
該預測顯示出未來幾十年移民將在多大程度上重塑美國人口格局，儘管包括共和黨總統候選人唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)在內的一些政客正通過敵視外國人來拉攏大量選民支持自己。
The report from the Pew Research Center finds that foreign-born individuals and their children will comprise no less than 36 per cent of the US population by 2065, higher than the peaks reached at the beginning of the 20th century and up from 26 per cent now. The ranks of foreign-born individuals alone will also rise to a record.
這份研究報告發現，到2065年時，海外出生的人及其子女將至少佔美國人口的36%，不但比現在的26%要高，而且高於20世紀初達到的峯值。即使只考慮海外出生的人本身，其數量也將升至創紀錄水平。
The research finds that the largest driver of US population growth over the next five decades will be immigration from Asian countries, with the expansion overtaking arrivals of Hispanics.
該研究發現，未來50年美國人口增長的最大驅動因素將是來自亞洲國家的移民，這一移民羣體的擴張將超過拉美裔移民。
By 2065, Asians are projected to become the largest immigrant group, at 38 per cent of the immigrant population, surpassing Hispanics, at 31 per cent. Overall, the immigrant population will soar to 78m by 2065, compared with 45m today, with a growth rate double that of the US-born population.
到2065年時，預計亞裔將成爲最大的移民羣體，佔全部移民人口的38%，而拉美裔佔31%。總體來說，到2065年時美國的外來移民人口將飆升至7800萬（現在爲4500萬），增長速度是美國境內出生人口增速的兩倍。
The outlook comes as controversy over immigration plays a big role in the presidential election debate. Mr Trump’s attacks on Mexicans have raised fears among Republican strategists that the party will alienate Hispanic voters when they are becoming a powerful voice at the ballot box.
移民問題引發的爭論如今正是美國總統大選辯論的重頭戲。特朗普對墨西哥裔移民的抨擊引起了共和黨內戰略家的擔憂，他們擔心在拉美裔選民成爲投票箱前一支重要力量之際，共和黨會疏遠這些選民。
His words pander to a belief that illegal immigrants are still flooding into the US. Yet the ranks of unauthorised immigrants in the US stayed static between 2009 and 2014, Pew numbers showed, as illegal arrivals from Mexico slowed.
特朗普的言論迎合了某些人的一種看法，即非法移民仍在如潮水般涌入美國。然而皮尤的數據顯示，2009年到2014年間，美國非法移民數量沒有什麼變化，而墨西哥裔非法移民的流入有所減緩。
“We are basing our trends on the patterns we have seen over the last 10 years,” said Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer at the research centre.
皮尤資深人口統計學家傑弗裏帕塞爾(Jeffrey Passel)說：“我們是基於過去10年觀察到的模式得出這一發展趨勢的。”
Pew polling shows Americans deeply divided over benefits of further immigration, with 55 per cent of Democrats saying immigrants make US society better while 53 per cent of Republicans say immigrants make society worse.
皮尤的民調顯示，對於進一步的移民流入是否有好處，美國人的看法存在嚴重分歧，55%的民主黨人認爲外來移民讓美國社會變得更好，53%的共和黨人認爲讓社會變得更糟。
The US population is expected to reach 441m by 2065, compared with 324m today, with 88 per cent of the increase linked to future immigrants and their descendants, says the report.
皮尤的報告顯示，預計到2065年時美國人口將達4.41億（現在爲3.24億），88%的人口增長與未來的移民及其後裔有關。
