中國玉米會重蹈大豆的覆轍嗎
When it comes to corn imports, the big worry for Chinese leaders lies in the history of another crop: soybeans.
一談到玉米進口，中國領導人難免會想起大豆的歷史教訓。The thinking is: 'We cannot have a situation like it was with soybeans, where we now heavily rely on imports,' Huang Dafang, the director of the Biotechnology Research Institute of Beijing's influential Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters Thursday.
中國農業科學院(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)生物技術研究所所長黃大昉週四對記者說，不能讓玉米像大豆那樣嚴重依賴進口，不能重蹈大豆的覆轍。Told from some quarters, the story of the Chinese soybean is a lesson in a strategic error.
從某些方面講，中國大豆政策是戰略上的失誤。
Until the early years of the 21st century, China mostly grew its own soybeans. The oilseed -- a key ingredient for many of Asia's most popular foods, including soy sauce -- was once counted among the crops that contributed to Beijing's totemic goal of having domestic grains feed at least 95% of its people's consumption. The government hasn't abandoned this self-sufficiency target, but it has dropped soybeans from the count, Mr. Huang said.
直到本世紀頭幾年，中國大豆基本上還是自給。作爲一種油料作物，大豆是亞洲許多最受歡迎的食品和調味品（例如醬油）的重要原料。在中國劃定的最低糧食自給率95%的目標中，大豆也曾被列入自給自足的計劃，但黃大昉說，政府雖然沒有放棄糧食自給率目標，但已經不再把大豆算入其中。That's because Beijing bowed to rising demand and opened its gates to soybean imports as part of its accession to the World Trade Organization. By 2004, soybean imports overtook domestic output. Today, China is the world's largest soybean importer, importing 63.4 million metric tons last year -- about a third came from the U.S. -- while producing just 13 million tons for itself.
之所以會這樣，一方面是因爲需求攀升，一方面也是因爲開放大豆進口是中國加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)的一項承諾。到2004年，中國大豆進口量已超過國內產量。中國目前是全球最大的大豆進口國，去年進口量達到6,340萬噸（約三分之一進口自美國），國內產量僅爲1,300萬噸。What's worrying people who think about China's strategic independence: China's corn market is showing signs of going the way of the soybean.
關注中國戰略獨立性的人擔心，中國的玉米市場有重蹈大豆覆轍的跡象。Until 2010, China was a net exporter of corn. It turned net importer that year, with growth rates rising explosively. The U.S. accounts for more than 90% of its supply.
2010年，中國從過去的玉米淨出口國變成淨進口國，進口量呈爆炸式增長。在中國進口的玉米中90%以上來自美國。China is now at a juncture where the question is whether it will continue to embrace rising volumes of corn imports or aggressively grow its home turf. Last year, corn imports fell 37% --though the country stayed a net importer amid record-high monthly shipments.
中國正處於十字路口，是繼續大規模進口玉米還是努力增加國內產量，需要中國做出抉擇。去年中國玉米進口量下降37%，但由於月度進口量創下紀錄，中國仍是玉米淨進口國。Part of the reduction was due to a strong domestic harvest. But China in December also made headlines by turning away 545,000 tons of U.S. corn, an unprecedented volume of rejections, because the shipments contained MIR-162, a genetically modified strain that China hasn't approved.
去年中國玉米進口量的下降一定程度上與國內玉米豐?有關。但去年12月份中國退回54.5萬噸美國玉米事件引發了廣泛關注，這次退回的玉米數量前所未有，退貨理由是玉米中含有中國尚未批准的轉基因成分MIR-162。On Thursday, Mr. Huang said the issue turned purely on compliance with the letter of the law, not on a question over the strain's health standards. 'Based on what I know, [the rejection] was not a safety issue, but a procedural matter of Chinese law and requirements,' he said.
黃大昉週四說，退貨完全是爲遵守相關法規，與MIR-162健康標準無關。他說，據他所知，退貨不是因爲安全問題，而是程序問題。But the rejection drew the spotlight to China's rising need for food, tempered by fear among wide sections of the populace over GMO food imports. Beijing allows GMO corn imports for processing as animal feed but not for human consumption.
中國國內對進口轉基因食品的安全性普遍存在質疑，拒收玉米事件將中國食品需求不斷上升問題置於聚光燈下。中國政府允許進口轉基因玉米用於動物飼料加工，但不允許用於人類食用。The government has so far held back from giving the green light for domestic GMO corn to be commercially grown and distributed for human consumption. There is still no sign that the agriculture ministry is prepared to quickly pave the way for high-yield homegrown GMO maize.
中國尚未批准在國內進行轉基因玉米的商業化種植和將轉基因玉米用於人類食用。目前沒有跡象表明農業部會在短期內出臺政策爲國內種植高產轉基因玉米鋪路。Xu Haibin, a director at the China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, said Thursday the government is still mulling the move. Mr. Huang said corn will most likely be the next GMO crop approved for commercial distribution in China, after cotton and papaya, but 'the timeline is still not very clear.'
國家食品安全風險評估中心(China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment)的徐海斌週四表示，政府還在考慮這件事。黃大昉說，玉米很可能成爲棉花和番木瓜之後下一個被批准商業化種植的轉基因作物，但時間不是很明確。
