8月進出口數據顯示中國製造業疲軟加劇
HONG KONG — China’s industrial slowdown is showing signs of sharpening, as its trade slump deepened further in August amid weaker demand from overseas buyers.
香港——由於海外買家需求進一步疲軟，中國8月份的對外貿易下滑加劇，工業增長放緩的跡象愈加明顯。
Once seemingly indomitable as the world’s workshop, China is now facing its most protracted declines since the global financial crisis, with overseas shipments falling 5.5 percent last month compared with a year earlier. That has dragged total exports 1.4 percent lower in dollar terms in the first eight months of the year.
曾幾何時，中國似乎是一家頑強不屈的世界工廠，而目前正面臨自全球金融危機以來最持久的經濟下滑，上月按美元計價的出口商品總值與去年同期相比下降了5.5％。這使得今年頭8個月按美元計價的出口總值降低了1.4％。
It is a sign that the country’s sprawling manufacturing sector is losing competitiveness: Labor costs are rising relentlessly and the currency, the renminbi, remains relatively strong despite its devaluation last month. The currency move still left Chinese goods notably more expensive for foreign buyers than they were even a year ago.
這是中國龐大的製造業正在失去競爭力的標誌：勞動力成本持續上升；儘管人民幣上月貶值，但中國貨幣仍相對強勁。上月的貶值仍讓中國商品對國外買家來說，保持在明顯較高的價位，即使是與一年前相比。
At the same time, China’s imports are falling even more sharply, declining last month for the 10th month in a row, with a drop of 14 percent by value.
與此同時，中國的進口下降幅度更大，上個月是進口連續下滑的第10個月，進口商品總值下降了14％。
The weak trade data rattled regional markets. Japan’s main stock index, the Nikkei 225, closed 2.4 percent lower, erasing all its gains so far this year.
中國疲軟的貿易數字使亞洲地區的股市緊張。日本的主要股票指數日經225指數以2.4％的降幅收盤，回吐了今年到目前爲止的全部漲幅。
In Shanghai, stocks initially fell more than 2 percent when the trade figures were released. But heavy buying in the afternoon set off a rally that helped shares close 2.9 percent higher.
在上海股市，貿易數字發佈後，上證指數曾一度暴跌了2％以上。但是，午後的大量購入讓股市出現反彈，反彈幫助上證指數以2.9％的漲幅收盤。
That pattern has been seen often in recent weeks, as China’s government appears to continue to try to support the country’s slumping stock markets. State brokerages last week pledged to contribute an additional 100 billion renminbi, or about $16 billion, to China’s stock bailout fund.
隨着中國政府看來繼續其支撐國內低迷股市的嘗試，股市的這種交易模式在最近幾周很常見。國家券商上週做出保證，將爲中國股市的救市基金追加1000億元人民幣（約合160億美元）的資金。
Economists say sharp drops in global prices for commodities like oil and industrial metals have propelled the decline in import value. But the sheer volume of imports of crucial industrial raw materials like coal, iron ore, copper, aluminum and steel has also fallen this year. The declines are a clear sign of weakening domestic demand in China as a slump in manufacturing and new housing construction drag on economic growth.
經濟學家表示，石油和工業金屬等大宗商品的全球價格急劇下降也推動了進口總值的下降。但是，諸如煤、鐵礦石、銅、鋁和鋼材等關鍵工業原料的宏大進口規模今年也在下降。這種下降是中國國內需求低迷的一個明顯標誌，中國經濟增長放緩的主要原因是中國製造業和新住房建設驟減。
Beck Cai, a sales manager at the Shanghai Steel Fashion Industrial Company, a manufacturer and exporter of prefabricated steel structures, said his company’s business in August dipped as much as 40 percent compared with a year earlier.
預製鋼結構製造商和出口商上海森奉實業有限公司(Shanghai Steel Fashion Industrial Company)的銷售經理貝克·蔡(Beck Cai)說，公司8月份的業務，與去年同期相比，減少了40％。
“I don’t think it has anything to do with the way we operate; it is mainly that the overall environment is slowing down,” Mr. Cai said. “As far as the recent devaluation of the renminbi, it is still too early to tell how it will impact our business.”
“我不覺得這與我們的運作方式有什麼關係；主要是整體經濟環境明顯放緩，”蔡先生說。“至於人民幣近期的貶值將如何影響我們的業務，現在做結論還爲時尚早。”
China’s leadership last month made the surprise decision to devalue the currency by about 3 percent, the renminbi’s sharpest drop in two decades. But China’s central bank has since intervened on a huge scale, propping up the currency further by selling dollars for renminbi.
中國領導人上個月出人意料地決定讓人民幣貶值3％，這是20年來最大的幅度。但那以後，中國央行採取了大規模的干預措施，通過拋售美元、購進人民幣，再次推高了中國貨幣的價格。
As a result of this intervention, China is burning through its huge stockpile of foreign exchange reserves at the fastest pace on record. Reserves fell by nearly $100 billion in August alone, although that still leaves $3.56 trillion, the central bank reported on Monday.
這種干預的一個結果是，中國正在以創紀錄的速度減少其龐大的外匯儲備。據央行週一發佈的信息，外匯儲備僅在8月份的一個月裏就減少了近1000億美元，但仍有3.56萬億美元之多。
Still, analysts say the recent devaluation was probably too small to help China’s exports.
不過，分析人士認爲，近期貨幣貶值的幅度可能仍太小，無法幫助中國的出口。
“The renminbi has appreciated substantially in real effective terms against a basket of currencies in the past year, which in relative terms makes China’s exports less competitive than in the past,” Ding Shuang, the head of greater China economic research at Standard Chartered, wrote in an email. “But China still registered huge trade surplus and there is no reason for significant devaluation against most currencies.”
“在過去的一年裏，人民幣對一籃子貨幣的有效實際匯率大幅增長，這使得中國的出口相對來說比過去的競爭力下降，”渣打銀行大中華區研究部主管丁爽在一封電子郵件中寫道。“但中國仍有鉅額貿易順差，沒有理由認爲人民幣將會對大多數貨幣出現大幅貶值。”
China’s trade surplus with the rest of the world has surged, rising to $365 billion in the first eight months of the year. This is because imports are declining more sharply than exports.
中國對外貿易順差激增，總值上升到今年頭8個月的2.23萬億元。這是因爲進口下降幅度明顯地高於出口。
But the trade surplus also helps soften the blow of investors’ pulling money out of China amid expectations that the renminbi will weaken further.
但貿易順差也有助於緩解人民幣的貶值壓力，這種壓力來自投資者因預期人民幣將進一步走軟而把資金撤出中國的做法。
Analysts at Nomura calculate the pressure on China’s currency to weaken is stronger now than at any time since 1994, when the country adopted its modern exchange rate system and devalued the currency by a third.
據野村證券分析師的計算，中國貨幣現在面臨着比1994年以來的任何時候都大的貶值壓力，中國在1994年引入了目前使用的現代化匯率制度，當時曾讓人民幣貶值了三分之一。
“Given the Chinese economy’s weak growth and deep-seated structural challenges, we expect renminbi depreciation pressure to remain,” the Nomura analysts wrote in a research note on Tuesday. “However, unlike in the late 1980s and early 1990s, we expect this pressure to be moderate and prolonged, rather than sudden and severe.”
“考慮到中國經濟增長乏力、以及更深層次的結構性挑戰，我們預期人民幣貶值的壓力將持續存在，”野村分析師週二在一份研究報告中寫道。“但是，與20世紀80年代末、90年代初不同，我們預期這種壓力是適度和長期的，而不是突然和嚴峻的。”
One potential complication in the August trade figures may be the exchange rate used by the customs administration. The administration said exports totaled $196.883 billion in dollar terms and 1.204 trillion renminbi in local currency terms.
8月的貿易數據可能存在一個讓情況複雜化的問題，涉及海關總署使用的匯率。該機構稱，出口總額以美元計價是1968.83億美元，以本幣計價是1.204萬億元人民幣。
That implied an exchange rate for August of 6.116 renminbi per dollar, the same implied rate used in the July trade figures. But China devalued its currency on Aug. 11, and the average exchange rate in August, according to the central bank’s official fixing, was 6.3056 renminbi per dollar.
這表明，8月使用的匯率和7月的貿易數據使用的匯率是一樣的，同爲6.16元人民幣兌1美元。但中國在8月11日讓人民幣貶值，而從央行發佈的官方匯率來看，8月的平均匯率中間價爲6.3056。
The reason for the discrepancy was unclear. But it raised the possibility that China’s actual decline in exports in renminbi terms was not as bad as the 6.1 percent decrease reported — or that the real decline in dollar terms might have been worse than the 5.5 percent drop reported.
出現這種差異的原因尚不清楚。但它提出了一種可能性，即以人民幣計價的中國出口實際下滑程度可能並沒有通報的6.1%那麼嚴重，或者是以美元計價的實際下滑程度可能多於通報的5.5%。
Representatives of the customs administration’s press office could not be reached for comment after normal working hours.
因爲過了正常的工作時間，本報未能聯繫到海關總署新聞辦公室的代表請求置評。
