中國下調GDP增長目標是好是壞

China lowered its economic growth target for this year to 7% on Thursday. That’s half a percentage point lower than the past three years, and a far cry from the heady 2000s when gross domestic product grew by an average 10% a year.

中國政府上週四宣佈，今年的經濟增長目標爲7%，比過去三年下調了0.5個百分點。這遠低於本世紀頭十年的水平，當時中國經濟高歌猛進，年均增幅曾達到10%。

There are two ways to interpret the news. For pessimists, the problems causing China’s economic slowdown don’t look like they’re going away anytime soon: the real estate market is falling deeper into distress; local government debt remains unsustainably high; and China’s model in the 2000s that supported double-digit GDP growth figures— in which Chinese firms produced steel and concrete and sold it to Chinese firms building skyscrapers, roads and tunnels—has run its course. In response to the slowdown, China’s central bank cut interest rates last weekend for the second time in three months.

對這條消息有兩種解讀方式。對悲觀主義者來說，造成中國經濟增長放緩的問題看來不會很快消失。房地產市場越發低迷，地方政府債務仍處於難以爲繼的高水平，本世紀頭十年的那種發展模式也已經走到了盡頭。當時，中國的鋼鐵和水泥企業把自己的產品賣給國內建築公司，後者再用這些原材料修建摩天大樓、公路和隧道。面對經濟減速，中國央行上週下調了利率，這已經是央行在三個月內第二次降息。

For optimists, China may be slowing, but man is it still impressive! China is still the fastest-growing of the world’s 20 largest economies (or maybe the second-fastest after India, depending on whose statistics you trust more). And today’s 7% target growth rate translates into $1 trillion in additional activity during the year—a marginal increase that is more than half of India’s total GDP. The optimists also argue a lowered GDP target makes reforms easier to stomach: China’s pollution problems, caused by runaway development over thirty years, have been well documented, and solutions include scaling back the harmful industries. Lower targets should allow China to focus on sustained “quality” growth instead of cheap measures to boost GDP. Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Andrew Batson, who is no Pollyanna, offered the positive view on Thursday: “This is a good thing,” he wrote of the reduced growth target. “[I]t means less political pressure to build up debt and run polluting factories in pursuit of an unrealistic growth target.”

對樂觀主義者來說，中國經濟增速可能正在下降，但增長水平仍令人側目。中國仍是全球20大經濟體中發展最快的一個（也可能位居第二，僅次於印度，這要看大家相信誰的數據）。7%的增長目標意味着今年中國的經濟規模將提高1萬億美元。雖然增速不高，但增長規模仍是印度GDP的一半以上。樂觀者還認爲，下調GDP增長目標將讓改革變得更容易。三十年來，中國經濟的飛速發展也引發了嚴重的污染問題。對此已有大量論述，解決方案之一就是壓縮排污工業的規模。降低經濟增長目標後，中國應該可以專注於保持高質量發展，而不是簡單地提升GDP。經濟和市場研究機構龍洲經訊分析師安德魯o巴特森絕不是盲目樂觀者，但他對於中國政府降低經濟增長目標持積極態度，安德魯寫道：“這是件好事。這表明政治壓力減輕了，不用再通過提高負債和放任工廠污染來追求不切實際的增長目標。”

Do GDP targets even matter? In China, yes. Its economy is still immature in many ways. First, fiscal budgets in the country are based off the target number. Second, monetary policy is aligned with the targets too—the central bank can pump liquidity into the market if the economy isn’t reaching its “full” potential. Third, targets help reassure trading partners that China, unlike its European or U.S. competitors, will focus on predictably meeting economic targets that influence everything from natural resource prices to other emerging market economies.

GDP目標關係重大嗎？在中國，是這樣沒錯。中國經濟在許多方面仍不成熟。首先，中國政府的財政預算以經濟增長目標爲基礎。其次，貨幣政策也要遵循這個目標。如果經濟沒有“充分”發揮潛力，中國央行就可以爲市場注入流動性。第三，GDP目標有助於讓中國的貿易伙伴安心，因爲這表明中國和歐美競爭對手不同，注意力將放在按預期實現經濟目標上。這既會影響到自然資源價格，又會影響其他新興市場經濟體。

Do GDP growth targets matter to Chinese people? Less so. Whenever China’s GDP growth is in the headlines, it’s helpful to remember that individual prosperity isn’t driven by growth rates. China’s average per capita income remains very low despite the country’s standing as the world’s number two economy.

GDP目標對中國民衆來說重要嗎？不那麼重要。無論新聞媒體什麼時候提到中國的經濟增長率，記住一點很有用，那就是增長率並不會提高個人富裕程度。儘管中國是全球第二大經濟體，但中國的人均收入水平仍非常低。