中國私募股權調整收購目標

Like impatient drivers, money flows seek out new routes when existing ones are blocked. The $1bn purchase of Dick Clark Productions, the US producer of shows including the Golden Globe Awards, by China’s Dalian Wanda was officially canned this month. Similarly, the sale to a Chinese buyer of a lithium project in Mali was scrapped in January when capital proved hard to export. As overseas acquisitions become increasingly challenging amid Beijing’s clampdown on moving money offshore, expect trapped funds to find new targets — notably in private deals.

與不耐煩的司機一樣，資金流動在現有通道堵塞之後會尋找新的通道。中國大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)以10億美元收購舉辦金球獎(Golden Globe awards)的美國迪克?克拉克製片公司(Dick Clark Productions)的交易，本月正式告吹。同樣，由於事實證明資本很難輸出，今年1月馬裏一個鋰項目出售給中國買家的交易也被取消。隨着中國政府打擊資金外流，海外收購變得日益困難，此際，預計受困的資金會尋找新的目標，尤其是在私募股權交易中。

China’s private equity universe has already been growing. Preqin, an alternative asset data provider, says that venture capital deal volumes in Greater China began to rival those of the US as early as 2015. On Thursday, consultant Bain & Co noted that growth in investment has been especially strong for Chinese start-up firms. Nearly one-fifth of early-stage PE investments worldwide, around $15bn, were made in China.

中國私募股權行業已經在增長。另類資產數據提供商Preqin表示，大中華區的風險資本交易規模都快趕得上美國在2015年的規模了。從事諮詢業務的貝恩公司(Bain & Co)本週四指出，對中國初創企業的投資增長尤其強勁。全球近五分之一的私募股權早期階段投資發生在中國，規模約爲150億美元。

The flood of money has inevitably affected valuations. While multiples of enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for PE deals in the US averaged 10 times, in Asia-Pacific that figure was 17. According to both Preqin and Bain, a majority of PE investors are concerned about valuations.

資金流動不可避免地影響了估值。儘管美國私人股本交易所投資企業以息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤計算的市盈率平均是10倍，但亞太地區的這個數字是17倍。Preqin和貝恩的數據均顯示，絕大多數私募股權投資者對估值問題感到關切。

In China, prices are even more stretched. Acquisition multiples in 2016 were nearly 30 times, up from 26 in 2015. Buyers including insurers — which invest their own capital rather than having to satisfy external investors — competed with PE firms to push up prices.

在中國，估值甚至更離譜。2016年收購市盈率接近30倍，而2015年爲26倍。包括保險公司——保險公司使用自有資本投資而不用滿足外部投資者——在內的的買家與私募股權公司競爭推升了價格。

Elevated valuations are unlikely to return to reasonable levels soon. Two of the four largest funds currently raising capital originate in China. With overseas acquisitions under scrutiny at home and facing protectionism abroad, still more Chinese companies will be seeking out domestic targets.

已經擡高的估值不太可能很快回到合理水平。在目前籌資的4大基金當中，有兩家源於中國。隨着海外收購面臨國內審查和國外保護主義的阻撓，還會有更多中國公司尋求國內收購目標。

Those not restricted to China might want to look elsewhere in Asia. Japan, for instance, is drawing investors for its relatively cheap valuations and improved corporate governance.

那些不被限制爲只能投資中國的人可能想要考慮其他亞洲國家。例如，日本以其相對低廉的估值和良好的公司治理吸引了投資者的興趣。