中國GDP增長難掩私營部門頹勢

HONG KONG — Millions of Chinese businesspeople like Ou Chengbi are seeing scant signs of recovery in their country’s economy, even as data released Wednesday morning suggest growth is stabilizing.

香港——儘管週三上午發佈的數字暗示中國的經濟增長正趨於穩定，但是，像歐成壁（Ou Chengbi，音譯）這樣的幾百萬中國商人，還沒有看到多少跡象表明國家經濟正在復甦。

Ms. Ou, a butcher at an open-air market on the outskirts of Guangzhou in southeastern China, dripped perspiration near the unrefrigerated slabs of beef in her stall as she described how as recently as last winter, she could still chop up an entire cow each day and sell it all.

歐女士在中國東南城市廣州的一個郊外露天市場賣肉，她汗流滿面地站在擺着沒有冷凍的牛肉的攤子旁，講述着就在去年冬天，她還怎樣能把每天屠宰的一整頭牛賣出去。

“Now I can only sell half a cow a day,” she said.

“現在我每天只能賣掉半頭牛，”她說。

The National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing said Wednesday that growth in gross domestic product edged up in the second quarter to 7.5 percent compared with a year ago. But independent surveys of businesses across China show that in sector after sector, sales and confidence are still deteriorating.

位於北京的國家統計局週三表示，與去年同期相比，第二季度的國內生產總值小幅上升，增長速度達到7.5%。然而，對中國各地工商業的獨立調查顯示，在各個行業中，銷售額和信心仍在繼續惡化。

“All of them are pointing in the opposite direction from this supposed G.D.P. number,” said Leland Miller, the president of China Beige Book International, a New York data service that surveys 2,200 private businesses across China each quarter to gauge economic activity.

“所有這些都指向與這個所謂的GDP數字相反的方向，”中國褐皮書國際公司(China Beige Book International)總裁勒蘭德·米勒(Leland Miller)說，該公司是紐約的一家數據服務機構，每個季度都對中國各地的2200傢俬營商家做問卷調查，以衡量中國的經濟活動。

Three of the four cylinders of the Chinese economy — exports, private sector construction and retail sales — are sputtering. But the fourth, government investment and spending, is running strong, propelled by redoubled lending this spring by the state-controlled banking system to the national railroad system, local governments and state-owned enterprises.

中國經濟引擎的四個缸中有三個在熄火：出口業、私營建築業，以及零售業。只是政府投資和開支這第四個缸有強大的動力，動力來自今年春季國有銀行對國家鐵路系統、地方政府，以國有企業的加倍貸款。

The result has been frenzied spending on the construction of new railroad lines — up 32.1 percent in June from a year earlier — and subsidized housing. Steel output in China is setting records by tonnage as a result, even as the number of housing starts in the private sector falls steeply.

在新鐵路線建設和補貼住房上的投資瘋狂增長，截至6月，鐵路建設開支與過去一年相比增長了32.1%。結果是以噸爲計的中國鋼鐵產量達到歷史最高水平，雖然私營行業住房建設的開工量大幅下降。

Total lending has now risen faster than economic output, even before adjusting for inflation, in every quarter since late 2011. Lending accelerated further in June, according to figures released on Tuesday by the People’s Bank of China. Yet Mr. Miller’s survey and others show that private businesses are becoming less and less interested in borrowing money because they see few opportunities to invest it profitably.

如今，貸款總額的增長速度已超過2011年底以來每個季度的經濟增長速度，即使沒有將通貨膨脹考慮進去的話。中國人民銀行週二發佈的數字顯示，放貸在6月份進一步加速。但是，米勒的調查及其數據顯示，私營行業對貸款的興趣越來越小，因爲人們看不到多少能讓投資贏利的機會。

“Generally speaking, comparing recent months to the same period last year, business has been very slow and very quiet,” said Kay Lam, the manager of UB Office Systems, an office furniture store in Guangzhou.

“總的來說，最近幾個月與去年同期相比，生意一直很慢，很冷清，”廣州一家辦公傢俱店“優美辦公系統”(UB Office Systems)經理林佳（Kay Lam，音譯）說。

Chinese officials have repeatedly called for rebalancing the economy: encouraging more spending by households, which save nearly half their incomes, and less dependence on debt-financed investment projects. But each time growth starts to fall below the official target of roughly 7.5 percent — as it did in the first quarter, when it was 7.4 percent — the government quickly opens the spigots for further credit.

中國官員們多次呼籲要重新平衡經濟：鼓勵家庭更多地消費，(中國家庭將收入的一半存起來)，減少對用貸款來投資項目的依賴。但是，每次經濟增長速度降到低於官方的7.5%的目標時，比如今年第一季度的增長速度爲7.4%，政府又很快打開更多貸款的水龍頭。

Some economists inside and outside the government say China has a choice: slow down lending and accept steady declines in economic growth each year, or continue heavy lending and risk a sharp drop in economic growth someday when the financial system begins to teeter. But nobody knows when that might happen.

政府內部和外部的一些經濟學家說，中國面臨一個選擇：減緩貸款，接受每年經濟增長速度的穩步下降；或繼續大幅貸款，從而承擔金融系統出現問題時，經濟增長有朝一日迅猛下跌的風險。但沒人知道那會在什麼時候發生。

“Although there is no way to predict with accuracy and certainty the point at which China will reach the limits of its debt capacity, I believe that current rates of credit expansion can continue at most for another 3-4 years,” Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, wrote in his newsletter after the release of the economic data.

“雖然還沒有辦法能準確和確定地預測，中國將在什麼時候達到其舉債能力極限，我認爲目前的信貸擴張速度最多可再繼續3到4年，”北京大學光華管理學院金融學教授邁克爾·佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)在經濟數據出來後自己發的通訊中這樣寫道。

Yet China’s economic outlook retains pockets of long-term strength. One of them is that tens of millions of Chinese workers have more money each year to spend. The data Wednesday showed that average wages for migrant workers were up another 10.6 percent this summer from a year ago, nearly five times the increase in consumer prices over the past year, at just 2.3 percent.

然而，中國的經濟前景中有一些能維持長久強盛的方面。其中一個是數以千萬計的中國工人每年都有更多的錢可花。週三的數據顯示，農民工的平均工資在今年夏天與一年前相比增長了10.6%，幾乎是過去一年中居民消費價格2.3%增長率的5倍。

Migrants, often with less than a high school degree, have fared better than more educated young people in China’s job market in recent years, however, as a quintupling in the number of college graduates has produced a glut in a country still heavily reliant on blue-collar sectors like construction and manufacturing.

農民工通常沒有受過高中教育，但是，在中國近年來的職業市場上，他們比受過更多教育的年輕人有更多的機會，因爲大學畢業生人數翻了五番導致過剩，而這個國家在很大程度上仍依賴諸如建築業和製造業等藍領行業。

Retail sales are growing strongly, up 12.4 percent in June from a year earlier, according to the government figures released Wednesday, nearly matching a pace of 12.5 percent in May. But that has not been fast enough to offset the deceleration in private sector investment as housing prices deflate.

根據政府週三發佈的數字，零售業銷售額增長強勁，與一年前相比，6月份增長了12.4%，與5月份12.5%的增長率幾乎持平。但是，這種長速還不足以抵消私營行業投資隨着房價下跌的加速下降。