報告 中國債務GDP佔比超美國

The world is awash with more debt than before the global financial crisis erupted in 2007, with China’s debt relative to its economic size now exceeding US levels, according to a report.

一份報告顯示，眼下世界負債水平高於全球金融危機爆發前的2007年，其中中國的債務與經濟規模之比超過美國。

Global debt has increased by $57tn since 2007 to almost $200tn — far outpacing economic growth, calculates McKinsey & Co, the consultancy. As a share of gross domestic product, debt has risen from 270 per cent to 286 per cent.

根據諮詢機構麥肯錫(McKinsey & Co)的計算結果，自2007年至今，全球債務已從57萬億美元增至近200萬億美元，增速遠超經濟增速。債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比已從270%增至286%。

McKinsey’s survey of debt across 47 countries — illustrated in an FT interactive graphic — highlights how hopes that the turmoil of the past eight years would spur widespread “deleveraging” to safer levels of indebtedness were misplaced. The report calls for “fresh approaches” to preventing future debt crises.

英國《金融時報》的交互式圖表顯示，麥肯錫對47個國家債務情況所做的調查凸顯出，指望過去8年的動盪將推動普遍的“去槓桿”操作（使債務降至更安全的水平）是幼稚的。報告呼籲有關方面採取“新措施”來防止債務危機未來重演。

“Overall debt relative to gross domestic product is now higher in most nations than it was before the crisis,” McKinsey reports. “Higher levels of debt pose questions about financial stability.”

“眼下大多數國家的總體債務與GDP之比高於危機前水平，”麥肯錫報告稱，“債務水平提高給金融穩定帶來變數。”

Overall, almost half of the increase in global debt since 2007 was in developing economies, but a third was the result of higher government debt levels in advanced economies. Households have also increased debt levels across economies — the most notable exceptions being crisis hit countries such as Ireland and the US.

總體而言，全球自2007年以來新增的債務近一半出現在發展中經濟體，但也有三分之一是發達經濟體政府債務水平提高的結果。全球家庭債務水平也提高了，明顯的例外是愛爾蘭、美國等受到危機衝擊的國家。

“There are few indications that the current trajectory of rising leverage will change,” the report says. “This calls into question basic assumptions about debt and deleveraging and the adequacy of tools available to manage debt and avoid future crises.”

“沒有多少跡象顯示，目前這種債務水平不斷升高的趨勢會發生改變，”報告稱，“這對一些基本假設提出質疑——關於債務、去槓桿化、以及有沒有足夠的工具來管理債務和避免未來危機。”

Countries that McKinsey warns face “potential vulnerabilities” because of high household debt include the Netherlands, South Korea, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Malalysia and Thailand. “It is like a balloon. If you squeeze debt in one place, it pops up somewhere else in the system,” says Richard Dobbs, one of the report’s authors.

麥肯錫指出，因家庭債務過高而面臨“潛在脆弱性”的國家包括：荷蘭、韓國、加拿大、瑞典、澳大利亞、馬來西亞和泰國。報告作者之一理查德•多布斯(Richard Dobbs)表示：“這就好像氣球一樣。如果你擠一個地方的債務，它會在系統內另外某個地方冒出來。”

One “bright spot,” McKinsey says, is evidence of deleveraging by banks. Financial sector debt relative to GDP has declined in the US and a few other crisis hit countries, and stabilised in other advanced economies.

麥肯錫表示，一個“亮點”是，有證據顯示銀行業進行了去槓桿。在美國和其他幾個受到危機衝擊的國家，金融業債務相對於GDP的比例下降了，在其他發達經濟體，這一比例也已企穩。

China’s total debt, including the financial sector, has nearly quadrupled since 2007 to the equivalent of 282 per cent of GDP. That was higher than in the US –— although China is lower if financial sector debt is excluded to avoid double counting. McKinsey warns of risks in China’s property sector, local government financing and a rapidly expanding “shadow” banking system.

中國的總債務水平（包括金融業債務）自2007年至今增加了近3倍，目前水平相當於GDP的282%。這個比率比美國還高，儘管在剔除金融業債務（以避免重複計算）之後，中國的債務比例更低。麥肯錫就中國房地產業、地方政府融資、以及快速擴張的“影子”銀行體系存在的風險發出了警告。

The country’s overall debt “appears manageable”, McKinsey says, but its indebtedness would restrict its ability to compensate for slower long-term growth in advanced economies.

麥肯錫表示，中國的總體債務“看上去可控”，但這種債務水平，將制約其對發達經濟體長期較低增長進行補償的能力。

“Before the [post-2007] crisis there was one area where debt was very low and stable, and that was China,” says Luigi Buttiglione, head of global strategy at hedge fund Brevan Howard and co-author of a report in September on global indebtedness. “When there was a crisis in the west, China could lever up. Now that is not the case.”

“在（2007年後）那場危機爆發前，有一個地方的債務水平極低並且非常穩定，那就是中國。”對衝基金“布勒旺霍華德”(Brevan Howard)全球策略主管、去年9月一份關於全球債務情況的報告作者之一路易吉•布蒂廖內(Luigi Buttiglione)表示，“過去，當西方爆發危機時，中國可以加大槓桿率（作爲補償）。如今情況不再如此。”

The report is likely to fuel debates among economists about what is an appropriate level of debt in an economy. McKinsey argues much of the expansion in developing countries has reflected the healthy development of financial markets, but in advanced economies high debt could constrain growth and create fresh financial vulnerabilities.

最新報告可能助燃經濟學家們圍繞一個經濟體合理債務水平的辯論。麥肯錫認爲，發展中國家的相當大部分債務擴張反映了金融市場的健康發展，但在發達經濟體，高昂的債務可能阻礙增長、製造新的金融風險。