中國空氣污染是由什麼造成的?大綱
A spike in air pollution in Beijing and other Chinese cities has brought concern over auto fumes to the fore in the world's largest car market, but analysts say trucks and older cars─rather than new passenger vehicles -- lie at the heart of China's current pollution woes.
在中國這個世界最大的汽車市場，北京和其他中國城市的空氣污染突然加劇，令人們對汽車尾氣排放的擔憂變得突出，但分析師說，中國當前污染禍患的重點是卡車和較爲老舊的汽車，而不是新的乘用車。
China overtook the U.S. as the biggest auto market by number of new vehicles sold in 2009. Last year, Chinese customers bought 19.3 million vehicles, a figure the semiofficial China Association of Auto Manufacturers forecasts will grow a further 7% this year.
2009年，以新車銷量計算，中國取代美國成爲世界最大的汽車市場。去年中國消費者總共購買了1,930萬輛車，根據半官方的中國汽車工業協會的預測，這個數字今年還將增長7%。
A fourth day of severe pollution across large parts of China has put scrutiny on industries that contribute to China's pollution problems, including auto makers, power companies, steel makers and other firms.
中國大片地區的重度污染情況進入第四天，造成中國污染問題的一些行業因此受到人們審視，其中包括汽車製造商、電力公司、鋼廠和其他一些公司。
China has fewer cars on the road than the U.S. -- 92.7 million compared with about 245 million. But according to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection, only 5.7% of China's vehicles meet the country's highest national Grade IV standards that limit toxic emissions from vehicles including greenhouse gas and tiny particulate matter known as PM2.5.
中國上路行駛的車輛共有9,270萬輛，低於美國約2.45億輛的規模。但據中國環境保護部的數據，中國僅有5.7%的車輛符合最嚴格的國家第四階段機動車污染物排放標準（國IV標準），該標準對包括溫室氣體和微小顆粒物PM2.5在內的廢氣排放做出了限制。
The majority meet relatively low emission standards. The 10% of vehicles that don't meet the minimal Grade I emission standard account for 40% of the total emissions of major pollutants, the ministry said.
中國大多數機車都只符合相對較低的排放標準。環保部說，有10%的車輛不符合最低的國I排放標準，其排放的污染物佔主要污染物總排放量的40%。
'Mitigation of the problem lies much more in getting rid of old vehicles and improving traffic flow,' said Janet Lewis, an analyst at Macquarie Securities.
麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)分析師劉易斯(Janet Lewis)說，緩和污染問題更多地在於取締老舊車輛並改善交通擁堵狀況。
Public outcry about the recent spike in pollution could also motivate the government to re-examine its once-ambitious plans for electric vehicles, implementation of which have recently stalled.
公衆對最近污染加劇的強烈抗議可能還會促使政府重新審視其曾經雄心勃勃的電動汽車發展計劃，該計劃的實施近來陷入停頓。
Long term, the current pollution crisis could prompt a rethink of Beijing's policy on electric-vehicle technology, said Bill Russo, founder and president of auto consulting firm Synergistics Ltd. and a former Chrysler executive. 'If pollution is becoming a very visible problem, then it could change attitudes about alternatives' such as clean diesel and conventional hybrid engines, he said.
汽車行業諮詢公司Synergistics Ltd.創始人兼總裁、曾任克萊斯勒(Chrysler)高管的拉索(Bill Russo)說，從長遠看，當前的污染危機可能促使人們反思中國政府針對電動汽車技術的政策。他說，如果污染成爲非常明顯的問題，那它可能改變人們對替代技術的態度，比如清潔柴油和傳統的混合動力發動機。
Last year, the State Council, China's cabinet, said it hopes output of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reaches 500,000 by 2015 and 5 million by 2020.
中國國務院去年說，希望純電動汽車和插電式混合動力汽車的產量2015年達到50萬輛，2020年達到500萬輛。
However, progress has been slow on more immediate steps. For example, China has twice delayed the nationwide rollout of tighter vehicle-emissions standards amid opposition from the refining industry. Tighter emission standards have also met with resistance from truck-engine manufacturers as well as buyers of trucks. A.T. Kearney consultant Stephen Dyer estimates the additional cost for engine makers to comply with stricter rules at around 10,000 yuan (about $1,600) per engine. 'While this may only represent 5% of the total cost, engine makers say it's enough to significantly impact sales,' he said.
然而更爲直接的措施進展一直很緩慢。舉例來說，由於遭到煉油行業的反對，中國已經兩次推遲在全國範圍內推出更嚴格的汽車排放標準。卡車發動機製造商和卡車買家也抵制更嚴格的排放標準。諮詢公司科爾尼(A.T. Kearney)的諮詢師戴加輝(Stephen Dyer)估計，發動機製造商如果要遵循更嚴格的標準，每臺發動機的成本將增加大約人民幣1萬元。他說，雖然這可能只佔總成本的5%，但發動機製造商認爲，這足以對銷售造成重大影響。The Environment Ministry said in January 2012 that the National IV standards would be applied to diesel-engine vehicles from July 2013.
2012年1月環護部說，從2013年7月起柴油車將實行國IV排放標準。
China has other options, such as promoting the scrapping of old vehicles.
中國還有其他選擇，比如推進舊車報廢。
Last year, the city of Beijing offered financial incentives to car owners to get rid of older cars. But the amounts involved were modest -- up to around 16,000 yuan for larger cars.
去年，北京市提供資金支持以鼓勵車主報廢舊車。但鼓勵額度並不高，報廢大中型車最多能享受大約人民幣1.6萬元的補貼。
Lin Huaibin, manager for China vehicle-sales forecasts at research firm IHS considers such incentives 'a start' toward increasing the scrappage ratio in China, which currently stands at around 3% of total registered vehicles, considerably less than the U.S. rate of around 8%. Mr. Lin said it's 'pretty likely' that other Chinese cities will follow in the steps of Beijing.
研究機構IHS中國汽車銷售預測部門負責人林懷濱認爲，上述刺激措施朝提高中國車輛報廢率邁出了第一步。中國目前報廢車輛佔登記車輛總數的比例約爲3%，遠低於美國約8%的報廢率。林懷濱說，中國其他城市很有可能會效仿北京的做法。
The latest pollution episode also could see more Chinese cities introduce restrictions on auto purchases.
最近這起污染事件可能會令中國內地更多城市引入車輛限購措施。
Last year, the southern city of Guangzhou and the southwestern city of Guiyang joined Beijing and Shanghai by putting car-ownership restrictions in place that seek to relieve traffic conditions and limit air pollution.
去年，南方城市廣州和西南部城市貴陽也加入北京上海的行列，這兩個城市將落實車輛限購措施，以緩解交通擁堵的現狀，防止空氣污染進一步惡化。
It is unclear whether such moves could specifically result in a fall in auto sales. Macquarie's Ms. Lewis said she didn't expect any further restrictions on the purchase of new vehicles as a consequence of the recent pollution problems.
目前還不清楚此舉是否會導致汽車銷量下降。麥格理證券的劉易斯說，她預計最近一系列污染問題不會導致政府進一步出臺新車限購措施。
Beijing had about five million vehicles on the road at the end of 2011 or 260 vehicles per 1,000 people. As of the end of 2011, Guangzhou had 2.33 million vehicles on the road, meaning 180 vehicles per 1,000 people, according to a government-affiliated transportation think tank in the southern Chinese city.
2011年底，北京約有500萬輛汽車在路上行駛，平均每千人擁有260輛車。廣州一家政府下屬的交通運輸方面的智庫說，截至2011年底，廣州有233萬輛汽車在路上行駛，這意味着每千人擁有180輛車。
There are more than 800 licensed vehicles for every kilometer of road in Beijing, data from the Beijing government show, compared with 306 vehicles in Hong Kong and 520 vehicles in Shanghai.
北京市政府數據顯示，在北京每公里道路上擁有牌照的車輛超過800輛，香港爲306輛，上海爲520輛。
Globally, about one third of polluting emissions can be attributed to transportation-related sources, said Mr. Dyer of A.T. Kearney. Of this, about one-third is linked to passenger cars, one-third to commercial vehicles and the rest to other forms of transportation including airplanes and ships.
科爾尼的戴加輝說，在全球範圍內，大約三分之一的污染排放可以歸因爲與交通相關的污染源。其中大約有三分之一是乘用車造成的，三分之一是商業車輛，剩下三分之一是包括飛機和輪船在內的其它交通工具。
However, in the case of Beijing about 50% of harmful emissions are caused by transportation sources, he said.
但戴加輝說，就北京的情況而言，約50%的有害氣體排放是交通污染源造成的。
