安倍演講暴露日美同盟瓶頸

As addresses by foreign leaders go, Shinzo Abe’s was less than rousing. Bibi Netanyahu got more ovations per paragraph than Mr Abe’s entire speech. But the Japanese prime minister’s agenda has a higher chance of success. His speech — the first by a Japanese leader to both houses of Congress — had two explicit aims. The first was to talk up the US military rebalancing to Asia. The second was to boost chances of a conclusion to theTrans-Pacific Partnership. To judge by what he said, Mr Abe is making more progress on the military dimension. He offered among the most robust endorsements by any Asian leader of Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia”.

就外國領導人發表的演講而言，安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的演講不那麼富有煽動力。本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一段話贏得的歡呼，就比安倍整篇演講贏得的歡呼還多。但這位日本首相的議程有着更高的成功機率。他的演講——這是日本領導人首次對美國國會參衆兩院聯席會議發表演講——有兩個明確目標。首先是高度評價美國在軍事上重新向亞洲傾斜的戰略。其次是提高《跨太平洋夥伴關係》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）達成的機會。從安倍演講的內容看，他在軍事方面取得了更多進展。他對巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的重返亞洲戰略給予了亞洲各國領導人中最有力的肯定。

Though Mr Abe never said “China” or “containment”, strengthening the US-Japan hedge against a rising China was his implicit theme. Yet he was far more specific on the military details of how that would be accomplished. Those among sceptical US lawmakers looking for detailed pledges from Japan on dismantling barriers to American beef, rice or vehicles would have been disappointed. Mr Abe added nothing to the vague pledges he and Mr Obama used in their White House press conference on Tuesday. There had been a hope that Mr Abe’s US trip would push the TPP talks towards a clinching moment. His speech will only add to the concern that we are still awaiting breakthroughs on TPP. Mr Abe’s most notable comment was a veiled reference to China when he said the 12-nation deal should build a market “free from the arbitrary intentions of any nation”.

雖然安倍隻字未提“中國”或者“遏制”，但是加強美日同盟以抗衡正在崛起的中國是他在字裏行間的主題。他在如何實現這一點的軍事細節問題上具體得多。不過，一些滿腹狐疑、期待從日本那裏得到消除針對美國牛肉、大米或汽車的貿易壁壘的具體承諾的美國議員肯定會失望。除了他和奧巴馬週二在白宮舉行的記者會上做出的含糊承諾外，安倍沒有做出任何新的承諾。此前有人希望，安倍訪美之行將推動TPP談判邁向敲定時刻。他的演講只會加劇外界的一種擔憂，即我們仍在等待TPP談判取得突破。安倍就TPP發表的最值得一提的言論是他含蓄提到中國，他表示，這個12國之間的協定應當構建一個“不受任何國家武斷意圖支配”的市場。

Mr Abe was far more direct about the demand for more US military hardware than he was about its goods and services. In this respect, he was continuing in the tradition of his predecessors. Yet there was a far more militaristic tinge to his narrative. Japan, he said, would support America’s Asia rebalancing “first, last and throughout”. He set out in detail his efforts to water down the US-framed Japanese constitution to permit its self-defence forces a more overt role. Japan would build a new “credible deterrence” that would enable it to co-operate more fully with US forces in the region. It would pump money into an upgrade of the US base in Guam (more than $2bn). Tokyo was also deepening military ties with India and Australia, which are the two of the largest bulwarks against China’s creeping expansionism. He also set out his principles on the “state of Asian waters” — a response to Beijing’s hyperactivity in the South China Sea.

相比美國的產品和服務，安倍在談到需要更多美國的軍事裝備時要直接得多。他在這方面繼承了幾位前任的傳統。然而他的敘述帶有濃厚得多的窮兵黷武色彩。他表示，日本將“身先士卒、堅持到最後並且全程”支持美國在軍事上重返亞洲。他詳細介紹了他淡化美國確定框架的日本和平憲法的努力，目的是讓日本自衛隊扮演更加高調的角色。日本將打造新的“可信威懾”，使其能夠在該地區與美軍展開更全面合作。日本將向關島美軍基地的升級改造提供更多資金（超過20億美元）。東京方面還在深化與印度和澳大利亞的軍事關係，這兩個國家是抵禦中國蠶食式擴張主義的兩大壁壘。他還闡述了他對“亞洲水域現狀”的原則，這是對中國在南中國海活躍行爲的迴應。

To American ears, Mr Abe’s words were those of a strong ally, regretful of its militaristic past on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the end of the war in the Pacific. He made strong — if precedented — references to Japanese regret over the US lives felled in Bataan, Corregidor, and the Coral Sea. But to Japan’s Asian neighbours, Mr Abe offered nothing new. There was no advance on previous apologies over Japan’s treatment of second world war “comfort women” or reassurances that he would reverse the trend towards historical revisionism in Japanese textbooks. In that sense, Mr Abe’s speech was disappointing. It also points up the limits to his support for Mr Obama’s Asia pivot. The US rebalancing hinges on the America-Japan alliance. Yet it is also limited by it. Until Japan is accepted as a fully repentant power by its neighbours, including China, Mr Abe’s utility as a US ally will be double-edged.

在美國人聽來，安倍像是一個堅強的盟友，在太平洋戰爭結束70週年前夕對日本的軍國主義歷史頗有悔意。他以強烈的語氣（儘管並非沒有先例）提到日方對在巴丹(Bataan)、科雷希多(Corregidor)和珊瑚海(Coral Sea)死去的美國人深表遺憾。但是，安倍對亞洲鄰國沒有作出新的表態。在日本在二戰期間對待“慰安婦”的問題上，他沒有在以往道歉的基礎上進一步表態，也沒有保證他將逆轉日本教科書內容的歷史修正主義趨勢。就此而言，安倍的講話令人失望。這也暴露了安倍對奧巴馬重返亞洲戰略的支持的侷限性。美國的重新部署有賴於美日同盟。然而，它也受到這個同盟的限制。在日本被包括中國在內的鄰國接受爲一個完全懺悔的國家之前，安倍作爲美國盟友的功用將是一把雙刃劍。