中國勞動大軍將爲全球消費貢獻12%
China’s working-age population will account for 12 cents of every $1 spent worldwide in urban areas by 2030, reshaping the global economy much as the west’s baby-boomer generation did in its prime.
到2030年，全世界城市地區每1美元的支出中，中國勞動年齡人口將貢獻12美分。他們將像西方嬰兒潮一代在其年富力強時期那樣，重塑全球經濟。
Their annual consumption will more than double, from $2.5tn in 2015 to $6.7tn in 2030, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the eponymous consultancy.
諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)旗下研究機構麥肯錫全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute, MGI)的數據顯示，中國勞動年齡人口的年消費額將從2015年的2.5萬億美元上升至2030年的6.7萬億美元，翻一番還多。
“This generation of consumers in China is more prosperous, more educated and more willing to spend a higher share of their income than previous generations were at the same age.
“與相同年齡段的前幾代人相比，這一代中國消費者更加富裕，受教育程度更高，更願意將收入中的更大一部分用作支出。”
“These consumers are now reaching income thresholds at which spending on services takes off rapidly,” McKinsey GI said.
MGI表示：“這些消費者現在正達到這樣一個收入門檻，在這一階段，服務方面的支出將迅速增長。”
Despite China’s longstanding one-child policy, McKinsey forecasts that the number of Chinese people aged between 15 and 59 will rise from 521m to 628m by 2030.
雖然中國長期實行獨生子女政策，但麥肯錫預測，到2030年，中國15至59歲年齡段的人口將從5.21億增至6.28億。
However, the rising incomes of these workers will have a far greater impact, with the proportion of urban working-age households with monthly earnings of $2,100 or more tipped to rise from 4 per cent in 2010 to 54 per cent by 2030.
然而，這些勞動人口不斷增加的收入將產生更爲深遠的影響。中國城市月收入2100美元以上的勞動年齡家庭所佔的比例預計將從2010年的4%升至2030年的54%。
Driven by this, McKinsey sees the per capita consumption of urban working-age Chinese people rising at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent, raising spending per person from $4,800 to $10,700 by 2030.
由此，麥肯錫認爲，中國城市勞動年齡人口人均消費的年均複合增長率將達到5.4%，使得人均支出從4800美元升至2030年的1.07萬美元。
Even if this transpired, per capita consumption would still be a fraction of western levels, with McKinsey forecasting that working-age people in North America will increase their consumption from $39,000 a head last year to $48,000 by 2030, with the over-60s in the developed world spending a fraction more still, some $49,000.
即便這成爲事實，這一人均消費水平與西方相比仍相形見絀。麥肯錫預測，北美勞動年齡人口的人均消費將從去年的3.9萬美元提升至2030年的4.8萬美元，而發達國家60歲以上人口的人均支出水平還要高一些，約爲4.9萬美元。
Nevertheless, the sheer size of this Chinese cohort, dwarfing the projected 191m working-age North Americans and 222m greying developed world types by 2030, will magnify their impact.
然而，中國勞動年齡人口的龐大規模將擴大其消費增長的影響。相比之下，到2030年，北美勞動年齡人口預計將只有1.91億，發達國家老齡人口將達到2.22億。
McKinsey predicted that working-age Chinese people will account for 18 per cent of global urban consumption growth by 2030, with their compatriots aged 60+ accounting for a further 10 per cent, as the first chart shows. (McKinsey does seem to be oddly obsessed with urban consumption, rather than consumption in general, but this does not matter too much as spending by those in areas it deems “urban” will account for 91 per cent of global spending growth in the period to 2030, it estimates).
如圖一所示，麥肯錫預測，到2030年，中國勞動年齡人口將爲全球城市消費增長貢獻18%，中國60歲以上人口也將貢獻10%。（麥肯錫似乎格外關注城市消費而忽視整體消費，但這影響不大，因爲據它估計，從現在到2030年，“城市”地區的支出將佔全球消費增長的91%。）
To put this into perspective, Europe’s much-discussed millennials (defined as those born between 1985 and 2000) will account for less than 2 per cent of global consumption growth in the period to 2030, says Richard Dobbs, a director of the McKinsey GI, who believes “the glamorisation of youth by marketers and advertising buyers is a vestige of the past”.
MGI負責人之一理查德•多布斯(Richard Dobbs)說，歐洲經常被討論的“千禧一代”（1985年至2000年間出生的人口）將在截至2030年的全球消費增長中貢獻不到2%。他認爲“營銷人員和廣告購買者對青春的美化渲染是過去的殘餘”。
The analysis, based in part on interviews with 10,000 Chinese people and a separate survey of 22,000 people spread across 25 countries, suggests the Chinese will start to shake off their reputation as risk-averse savers.
這份分析報告部分基於對1萬名中國消費者的採訪以及對25個國家的2.2萬消費者的獨立調查。報告認爲，中國人將開始擺脫作爲厭惡風險的儲蓄者的名聲。
Those aged between 18 and 54 told McKinsey that, if their pay rose 10 per cent in the next 12 months, they would spend 43 per cent of this, above the 31-32 per cent in western Europe and Japan and 20 per cent in traditionally spendthrift North America, whose citizens say they would save 39 per cent and use 41 per cent to pay off debt.
年齡在18到54歲的中國消費者對麥肯錫表示，如果他們的收入在未來12個月能提高10%，他們將花掉其中的43%。西歐和日本的這一比例爲31%至32%，北美爲20%。傳統上大手大腳的北美居民表示，他們將把其中的39%存起來，41%用來償還債務。
As Chinese consumers begin to narrow the spending gap with their wealthier western peers, their pattern of consumption is also likely to change.
隨着中國消費者開始縮小與更富裕的西方消費者之間的支出差距，他們的消費模式也可能隨之改變。
As the second chart shows, food accounts for almost half the spending of even middle-class Chinese workers. Just 11 per cent of consumption is directed towards dining out and recreation, and 7 per cent to housing and utilities.
如圖二所示，即使對於中國中產階級勞動者來說，在食物上的花費也佔據了將近一半的支出。只有11%的消費支出是用於外出就餐和娛樂，7%用於住房和水電雜費。
In contrast, US workers (or at least 25-34 year-olds) spend almost half their money on housing and utilities and a further quarter on dining out and recreation. Just 13 per cent goes on food.
相比之下，美國勞動人口（或者至少25-34歲年齡段人口）將近一半的支出用於住房和水電雜費，四分之一的支出用於外出就餐和娛樂。僅有13%的支出用於購買食物。
The over-60s in the developed world have a surprisingly similar spending mix to that of American millennials, admittedly with a little lower spending on housing and utilities and a little more on the category of education and healthcare.
發達國家60歲以上羣體的支出結構與美國千禧一代有着驚人的相似，只不過他們在住房和水電費上的支出少一點，在教育和醫療方面的支出稍多一點。
As Chinese workers steadily become wealthier, it may seem logical to think their spending patterns will be reshaped to more readily replicate those in the developed world today.
隨着中國勞動人口逐漸變得更加富裕，認爲他們的消費模式將被重塑並逐漸複製現在發達國家的消費模式似乎是合情合理的。
This has not gone unnoticed in the west, with McDonald’s last week announcing plans to open 1,250 new outlets in China in the next five years, adding to the 2,000 it already has in the country.
西方並未忽視這一趨勢。麥當勞(McDonald)上週宣佈計劃未來五年在中國開設1250家新店，目前麥當勞在中國擁有2000家餐廳。
One area where China is forging ahead of many of its western peers, however, is the importance it places on education. According to McKinsey, education accounts for half of the spending of the average Chinese 20-year-old, compared to less than a quarter in the US.
然而，中國消費者領先於很多西方消費者的地方在於他們對教育的重視程度。麥肯錫表示，在中國20歲年齡層的羣體中，教育佔總支出的比例達到一半，相比之下美國該羣體的教育支出佔比不足四分之一。
If the consultancy is correct, this differential could become larger still. In the period up to 2030, it expects spending on the education of the under-30s to account for 12.5 per cent of China’s overall consumption growth, just a fraction behind the 12.6 per cent it has pencilled in for Sweden, the country expected to prioritise education most of all.
如果麥肯錫預測沒錯的話，這種差異還可能進一步擴大。麥肯錫預計，到2030年，30歲以下羣體的教育支出將佔到中國整體消費增長的12.5%，僅次於瑞典預計將達到的12.6%。預計瑞典該年齡羣體將把教育放在最優先的位置上。
As the final chart shows, most other major countries are expected to target education far less, from the likes of the US and Japan, which already spend four or five times as much per child as China, to Nigeria and India, which spend around one-seventh as much per child as China.
如圖三所示，其他多數主要國家教育支出對消費增長的貢獻預計會遜色許多，無論是美國和日本之類的國家（目前兩國平均對每個孩子的教育支出是中國的四至五倍），還是尼日利亞和印度（平均對每個孩子的教育支出約爲中國的七分之一）。
“One of the most striking consumption patterns is the very significant share of income that Chinese consumers are spending on education,” McKinsey said. “It is notable that both public and private education spend are rising, contributing to growth roughly equally.”
“最引人注目的消費模式之一是中國消費者把收入中的很大比例用作教育支出，”麥肯錫稱，“值得注意的是，公共和私人教育支出都在增加，二者對消費增長的貢獻幾乎相當。”
