中國須防經濟最強支柱疲軟
After record capital outflows, stock market turmoil and a renminbi under severe pressure, the world has been waiting for reassuring economic news from China. So much so, that even when Beijing announced the country’s lowest economic growth rate since 1990, investors took comfort and set global equity and oil prices on to a firmer trend.
在看到中國出現創紀錄的資本外流、股市動盪以及人民幣承受重壓之後，全世界都在等待中國發布令人安心的經濟數據。這種心情如此迫切，以至於即便中國公佈了自1990年以來最低的經濟增速，投資者也依然感到欣慰，推動全球股市以及油價走勢好轉。
Some optimism is justified. The official growth rate may have slowed from 7.3 per cent in 2014 to 6.9 per cent last year, but that remains within touching distance of Beijing’s official target of around 7 per cent. There was also unambiguous evidence that China is starting to achieve its long-heralded transition away from investment and heavy industry as the main locomotives for growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The huge steel and power sectors announced a full-year contraction in output volumes.
保持一些樂觀情緒是有道理的。中國官方經濟增長率或許已從2014年的7.3%降至去年的6.9%，但這個數字仍處於政府制定的“7%左右”的增長目標範圍內。還有確鑿證據表明，中國正開始實現其長期宣稱的經濟轉型——使全球第二大經濟體不再把投資和重工業當作主要增長動力。中國龐大的鋼鐵、電力行業的全年產值出現萎縮。
Equally encouraging for the cause of structural transformation were figures showing that consumer spending contributed 66 per cent of China’s gross domestic product growth, the biggest contribution since 2001. Further underlining this shift, a booming service sector accounted for 50.5 per cent of GDP growth, 10 percentage points more than the once-dominant manufacturing sector.
就結構轉型而言，一些數據同樣令人鼓舞，這些數據顯示消費支出對中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長的貢獻達到了66%，是2001年以來的最大值。進一步突顯出這種轉型的是，蓬勃發展的服務業對GDP增長的貢獻達到50.5%，比曾經占主導地位的製造業高出10個百分點。
Such progress, however, does not disguise either the pain inherent in the transition or the deep faultlines that threaten to fracture China’s dynamism. Chief among these is the uncomfortable fact that China is buying much of its growth through a ballooning issuance of corporate and household debt.
然而，這些進步既不能掩蓋轉型過程中固有的痛苦，也不能掩蓋有可能破壞中國經濟活力的深層缺陷。最嚴峻的一個問題是，中國很大一部分增長是依靠不斷膨脹的公司和家庭債務實現的，這種情況令人不安。
Not only does China have the world’s highest private debt levels — having overtaken the US, Japan and South Korea since the 2008-09 financial crisis — it also has the highest debt service burden as a proportion of GDP alongside Korea, according to estimates from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). Indeed, the costs of servicing Chinese private debts amount to around 20 per cent of GDP, up from 12 per cent in 2009, the BIS says.
據國際清算銀行(BIS)估算，中國不僅私人債務水平世界最高（自2008-09年金融危機以來已超過美國、日本和韓國），其償債負擔與GDP之比也與韓國同處世界最高水平。國際清算銀行表示，實際上，中國私人債務的償債成本與GDP之比已從2009年的12%上升至20%左右。
Such debt burdens, coupled with overcapacity in several industries and declining industrial profits, threaten to tip China’s investment slowdown into a disorderly rout. The investments made by companies slipped sharply in December, falling well below the full-year expansion rate of 10 per cent.
這些債務負擔——加之多個行業存在產能過剩、工業利潤下降——有可能使中國的投資放緩變成無序崩潰。去年12月企業投資大幅下滑，遠低於全年10%的增速。
The danger now is that the contraction in industrial profits, the debt service burdens and a flagging property market could together depress household income growth — jeopardising the consumer spending that forms the most robust stratum in the economy.
現在的危險在於，工業利潤萎縮、償債負擔以及房地產市場萎靡可能共同抑制家庭收入增長，危及正在成爲中國經濟最強支柱的消費支出。
For its own sake and for that of an imperilled global economy, Beijing should prepare a robust fiscal and monetary bulwark against signs of consumer fatigue. With a fiscal deficit that totalled 2.3 per cent of GDP last year, China still has room to divert extra fiscal resources to support welfare payments for less well-off segments of society, thus helping to shore up spending.
爲了本國經濟健康發展同時也是爲了處於危險中的全球經濟，中國政府應該構築穩固的財政和貨幣政策堡壘，以抵禦消費疲軟跡象。中國去年的財政赤字僅相當於GDP的2.3%，因此仍有餘地投入額外的財政資源以加強對較不富裕羣體的福利支出，幫助提振消費。
In addition, Beijing should consider aggressive cuts to its bank required reserve ratios this year, thus releasing significant stores of liquidity into the economy and boosting demand. In addition, gradual cuts in interest rates may also help alleviate the debt service burden falling on corporations.
此外，北京方面今年應該考慮大幅降低銀行存款準備金率，從而向經濟釋放大量流動性和並提振需求。另外，循序漸進地降息也有助於減輕企業的償債負擔。
Many economists do not give credence to China’s official GDP figures, believing the real rate of growth to be significantly slower. But whatever the reality, Beijing faces a risk that without measures to support consumer spending, the current slowdown could morph into a slump. Recent events have shown how fragile confidence can be when it starts to unravel.
許多經濟學家不相信中國官方GDP數據，他們認爲中國的經濟增速實際上要低得多。但不管實際情況如何，中國政府面臨的風險是，如果不出臺措施支持消費支出，當前的增長放緩有可能演變成經濟蕭條。近期發生的事件已經表明，信心一旦開始瓦解會變得多麼脆弱。
