中國經濟以強勁勢頭邁向年尾
China’s economy is riding its strong momentum into the end of the year, with retail sales accelerating and industrial output slowing just a touch in November.
中國經濟正以強勁勢頭邁向年尾，11月份零售總額加速增長，工業產出僅略微放緩。Following on previous figures that showed a jump in exports and subdued inflation, the data published yesterday confirmed that the world’s second-largest economy remained in good health and had once again defied predictions for a more pronounced slowdown.
繼此前發佈的數據顯示出口出現飆升、通脹維持在較低水平之後，昨日發佈的數據證實全球第二大經濟體保持良好狀態，再一次粉碎了外界對於放緩情況將更爲嚴重的預測。Just a few months ago, analysts had expected that Chinese economic growth would tail off more sharply in the fourth quarter, but for now it appears to be close to its 7.8 per cent year-on-year pace of the third quarter. Industrial output increased 10 per cent in November from a year earlier, down from 10.3 per cent in October but above its average this year. Annual growth in fixed-asset investment edged down to 19.9 per cent in year-to-date terms from 20.1 per cent in October.
就在短短几個月前，分析師們曾預計，中國經濟增長將在第四季度比較劇烈地回落，但現在看來，第四季度增長將接近第三季度7.8%的同比增幅。11月份，中國規模以上工業增加值同比增長10%，低於10月份的10.3%，但高於今年的平均值。今年頭11個月的固定資產投資同比增幅爲19.9%，略低於今年頭10個月20.1%的同比增幅。
Retail sales topped expectations, expanding 13.7 per cent year-on-year in November, picking up from 13.3 per cent a month earlier.
零售總額增長超出預期，11月份同比增長13.7%，高於10月份13.3%的同比增幅。“Investment has softened but retail sales are strong and industrial production growth is still robust. Most people had expected growth to decline in the fourth quarter but now it’s likely to be even with the third quarter’s 7.8 per cent,” said Lu Ting, economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The solid data came as China’s leaders started their annual closed-door meeting to discuss economic plans for next year. The official Xinhua news agency said the ruling Communist party convened its central economic work conference yesterday.
“投資有所趨軟，但零售總額表現強勁，工業增加值增長仍相當穩健。多數人曾預計第四季度增長將回落，但現在看來很可能將保持在第三季度7.8%的水平，”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)經濟學家陸挺表示。這批強勁數據出爐之際，中國領導人正開始舉行年度閉門會議，討論明年的經濟規劃。官方的新華社稱，執政的中國共產黨昨日召開了中央經濟工作會議。The meeting is expected to produce a more detailed map for implementing the reforms launched at the party’s plenum last month, where China’s leaders vowed to give the market a “decisive” role in allocating resources in the economy.
預計這次會議將制定一份更爲具體的路線圖，以貫徹上月中共中央十八屆三中全會發起的各項改革。中國領導人在三中全會上誓言讓市場在中國經濟的資源配置方面起到“決定性”作用。China has taken steps in that direction since the plenum. Over the weekend, the central bank moved ahead with its agenda for interest rate liberalisation by launching certificates of deposits, financial instruments that will allow banks to trade deposits between each other at market-determined interest rates.
自三中全會以來，中國已在這個方向上邁出了幾步。上週末，中國央行推進其放開利率管制的議程，發佈了《同業存單管理暫行辦法》。同業存單這種金融工具可讓各銀行以市場決定的利率彼此買賣存款。The government has also reformed the way that companies list shares and has loosened capital controls in an experimental free trade zone in Shanghai, giving more play to market forces in both cases.
政府還改革了企業股票上市的方式，並在上海一個實驗性的自貿區放鬆了資本管制——這兩個舉措都賦予市場力量更大的施展空間。China’s leaders are ex-pected to establish a growth target for next year at the economic work conference. Many have predicted Beijing would lower its target to 7 per cent for 2014, while others believe it will be maintained at 7.5 per cent.
預計中國領導人將在中央經濟工作會議上確定明年的增長目標。很多人預計，中國高層將把2014年增長目標下調至7%，但也有人認爲明年增長目標將保持在7.5%。
