短觀調查顯示日本企業信心持續惡化

Japanese companies are expecting a marked deterioration in business conditions, according to a central bank survey published hours after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe secured a sweeping victory in Sunday’s general election.

根據日本央行(Bank of Japan)發佈的一份調查顯示，日本將面臨企業商業狀況顯著惡化的情況。就在此前幾個小時，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在衆議院選舉中大勝。

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan poll of more than 10,000 companies showed that the overall assessment of business conditions had improved since September by a single point to 5, where a positive number denotes a “favourable” environment. But companies’ forecasts for conditions in three months’ time produced an average score of 1, with a particularly gloomy outlook among smaller companies.

日本央行的季度短觀調查Tankan顯示，商業狀況的總體評估自今年9月升至5點，讀數爲正表明狀況“有利”。該調查針對1萬多家企業。但企業對未來3個月商業狀況的平均預測爲1，一些規模較小企業的前景尤爲悲觀。

Weak retail spending was a factor behind businesses’ shaky confidence, with a renewed slump expected after a recent temporary boost from the release of Apple’s hugely popular iPhone 6, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, an economist at Credit Suisse. There was also concern over the outlook for car sales and construction activity, he added.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)經濟學家白川浩道(Hiromichi Shirakawa)表示，零售支出疲弱是企業信心不穩的一個原因。在蘋果(Apple)發佈大受歡迎的iPhone 6最近帶來短暫提振後，預計零售支出將再度下滑。他補充稱，企業對汽車銷售和建築活動的前景也感到擔憂。

The Tankan survey “suggests that Japan is going into a double dip”, he said, predicting a small quarterly increase in gross domestic product during the final quarter of this year followed by a renewed contraction next year.

他表示，Tankan調查“表明日本正進入二次衰退。”他預測，在今年最後一個季度國內生產總值(GDP)較上一季度出現小幅增長後，明年的GDP增速將再次收縮。

Monday’s survey showed a continuing gulf in confidence between large companies — largely exporters that have benefited from a dramatic weakening of the yen — and small enterprises, many of which have been hit hard by rising import costs. Large companies gave a score of 14 for current business conditions, and forecast a decline to 12 in three months’ time. For small companies, the respective figures were 0 and -4.

週一的調查顯示，大公司與小公司之間的信心差距繼續存在，大公司主要是受益於日元匯率大幅下挫的出口商，而很多小企業因進口價格上漲受到重創。大公司對當前的商業狀況給出的得分是14，並預測未來3個月將下滑至12。而小企業的分值分別爲0和-4。

“The Tankan is somewhat disappointing for Mr Abe,” said Kazuhiko Ogata, an economist at Crédit Agricole. “Two years have passed since Abenomics started . . . but it is not really affecting corporate sentiment. He needs to encourage the corporate sector to behave more aggressively but the effort has not been enough yet.”

“對於安倍晉三而言，Tankan調查結果有些令人失望，”法國農業信貸銀行(Credit Agricole)經濟學家Kazuhiko Ogata表示，“安倍經濟學已實施兩年時間……但並沒有真正影響企業信心。他需要鼓勵企業界採取更大膽行動，但現在的努力還不夠。”