新常態下中國經濟發展的七大機遇

China's economy steps into the "new normal" phase, as it is growing in a manageable and relatively balanced manner. Confronted by a weakening overseas market, sliding domestic demand, adjustments in real estate sector and a deeper-level structural shift, the country faces mounting pressure of economic slowdown.
當前的中國經濟步入“新常態”，經濟增長進入了可控、相對平衡的運行區間。在外需疲軟、內需回落、房地產調整及深層次結構變動的力量綜合作用下，經濟下行壓力有所加劇。

However, the "new normal" does not only mean difficulties, challenges and risks. We still have the assertion that China's economy still has great strategic opportunities and can make great achievements. What has changed is the connotation and condition of this great opportunity.
然而，“新常態”並不是只有困難、挑戰和風險，新常態沒有改變我國發展仍處於可以大有作爲的重要戰略機遇期的判斷，改變的是重要戰略機遇期的內涵和條件。

China's economy is still featured with the fundamentals that it is growing in a healthy manner, with its development mode and economic structure changed. So the "new normal" of China's economy is breeding a great development opportunity with which the country, as a rising power, embraces the new economic system.
沒有改變我國經濟發展總體向好的基本面，改變的是經濟發展方式和經濟結構。因此，中國經濟“新常態”孕育着一個正在崛起的國家擁抱新經濟體系的宏大發展機遇。

First, the opportunity of major reforms and adjustments. The financial crisis in 2008 exposed the serious structural problem in the world's economy, and pronounced the end of China's traditional growth approach. Problems such as great energy consuming and severe pollution along with the high investment, social economic conflict along with the gap in income distribution, and the insufficiency of innovation plagued by excessive control have become hurdles for China to realize a prosperous country, affluent livelihood and the national rejuvenation.
第一,大改革與大調整的機遇。2008年國際金融危機不僅暴露了世界經濟面臨巨大的結構性問題，同時也宣告了鑲嵌在世界經濟格局中的中國傳統增長模式走到了盡頭。高投資帶來的高能耗與高污染、收入分配差距帶來的社會經濟衝突以及過度管制帶來的創新不足已經成爲中國實現國家富強、人民富足和民族復興的絆腳石。

Chinese people have realized that the major reforms and adjustments are the only choice to restructure the fundamentals of China's social and economic developments. The consensus reached in the "major reforms" and "major adjustments" is the best gift that the "new normal" brings to the next round of China's economic development. It gives China a great opportunity amid the worldwide structural reforms.
人民深深認識到，大改革和大調整是重構中國社會經濟發展基石的唯一選擇。這種“大改革”與“大調整”共識的形成是“新常態”帶給中國經濟下一輪發展的最大禮物,在世界性結構改革的大浪潮中給予了中國良好的機遇期。

Second, the opportunity in major consumption, major market and constructing the "effect of major economy". Other countries may be amazed to find that China, while stabilizing its position as the world's second largest economy, has its market demand and domestic consumption greatly improved.
第二,大消費、大市場與構建“大國經濟效應”的機遇。世界各國驚奇地發現，中國在GDP穩居世界第二位的同時，其市場份額和消費規模也大幅度提升。

The demand from China becomes a key factor in the world's demand and the "effect of a major economy" has revealed. For the first, the great scale and scope of China's economy, with the improvement of productivity offsetting the rise of various costs, does not lower its market demand in the world. For the second, the consumption is accelerating, as China's consumption is growing on an average speed of 13 percent every year.
中國需求成爲世界需求最爲重要的決定因素,“大國經濟效應”開始全面顯現。一是在市場上出現全面的規模效應和範圍效應，生產效率的提升有效對衝着各種成本的上升，使中國在世界市場的份額並沒有下降；二是消費開始上臺階，中國消費規模依然每年按照平均13%的速度增長。

Along with the expansion of demand from China, the purchase made by China has become a core factor to stabilize the world's economy. China is shifting its role from "the world's factory" to the "world's market". For the last, the role as the "world's factory" has been linked with that of the "world's market", and thus integrates the domestic trade with international trade. It makes the country's economy more stabilized and greatly improves its capability to deal with the turbulence in the world's economy.
中國需求的擴張使中國採購成爲世界經濟穩定的核心因素，中國開始從“世界工廠”轉向“世界市場”。三是中國的“世界工廠”開始與中國的“世界市場”相對接，在內外貿一體化的作用下使中國經濟的穩定性和抵抗世界經濟波動的能力大幅度上揚。

Third, the opportunity in great potential and constructing pluralistic growth poles. By the end of 2014, the index in China's every industry has shown that China's economy is shifting to post-industrialization, and the dividend of industrialization is wearing out. But we must see the great dimension and size of China's economy. The Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region, and Beijing-Tianjin area have shifted to a growth mode significantly driven by the service industry.
第三,“大縱深”與構建多元增長極的機遇。雖然到2014年底，中國各類產業結構的指標已經標誌着中國經濟開始向後工業化階段轉化，工業化紅利開始衰竭。但是，一定要看到中國經濟縱深的厚度和寬度，即“長三角”、“珠三角”以及“京津地區”雖然開始全面轉向服務業驅動。

But the per capita GDP in the vast central and west China as well as northeastern China is still lower than $5,000, with the industrialization in these areas remaining fast development in medium term. It will make way for upgrading the industry in the coastal areas, meanwhile accelerate the development in western areas. So the great shift of China's industry greatly slows down the receding of dividend of China's industrialization. By constructing the pluralistic growth poles, the layout of China's growth is more scientific.
但廣大的中西部和東北地區人均GDP依然不足5000美元，工業化依然處於高速發展的中期階段。這不僅爲東部產業升級提供有效的騰挪空間，也爲中西部加速發展提供了契機。因此，中國產業的梯度大轉移不僅大大延緩了中國工業化紅利消退的速度，同時通過構建多元化的增長極使中國空間佈局更加科學。

Fourth, the opportunity from "talents" and seeking second round of demographic dividend. The arrival of Lewis Turning Point and drawing close of aged society mean the traditional population dividend of China is wearing off. But it must be pointed out that it is only in the migrant worker sector that the problems of "being difficult to hire qualified workers" and "labor cost being on the rise" are most prominent. The layout of China's employment market features both "the difficulty of college students to land a job" and "the lack of migrant workers".
第四,“大人才”與構建第二次人口紅利的機遇。劉易斯拐點的到來和老齡社會的逼近意味着中國傳統的人口紅利開始消退。但必須注意的是，目前“招工難”和“用工貴”問題主要凸顯在農民工領域。中國的就業格局是“大學生就業難”與“民工荒”相併存。

With up to 7 million college students graduating every year, the starting salary of these students have started to draw close to that of farmer-turned workers. But that is the key point for China to shift from a populous country to one with powerful human resources.
每年高達700多萬大學生畢業壓力已經使大學生就業起薪與農民工平均工資開始拉平。而這恰恰是中國從人口大國邁向人力資源強國的關鍵。

It manifests that a large number of well-educated people have prepared China's industry upgrading with massive highly qualified and low-cost backup reserves. The second round of population dividend that features college students and human resources is replacing the traditional population dividend that features migrant workers and low-end labor force.
這說明大規模受過高等教育的人羣已經爲中國產業升級準備了大規模高素質、低成本的產業後備大軍。以大學生和人力資源爲核心的第二次人口紅利開始替代以農民工和低端勞動力爲核心的傳統人口紅利。

Fifth, the opportunity from "major innovation" and constructing technology dividend. When screening the various indexes of China's technology innovation, we will find that the new innovative development approach is taking shape while the extensive mode of economic development comes to an end. First, there is a significant growth in the number of patent applications: the number reached 2.577 million in 2013, up 15.9 percent. It accounts for 32.1 percent of the world's total, ranking the top in the world. Second, the expenditure in R&D increased significantly: it accounts for 2.09 percent of China's GDP in 2014, up 12.4 percent, or growing in a high-speed, moderate intensity level. Third, there is a great boost in the prosperity of technology market: in 2013 the trade volume in technology market reached 746.9 billion yuan, up 16 percent. Fourth, the export of high-tech products rose substantially, with the total volume climbing to $660.3 billion, or 30 percent of the total export volume. Fifth, the number of technology papers published overseas drew close to 300,000, making China one of the major powers of technology papers. Sixth, China boasts the world's largest team of researchers in science and technology sector. All these figures show that China will gradually obtain the dividend in technological innovation as long as it deepens reforms in technological system and encourages all kinds of innovative and creative activities. "Made in China" is shifting to "Innovate by China", along with the shift from labor intensive manufacturing to knowledge intensive industries.
第五,“大創新”與構建技術紅利的機遇。仔細梳理中國技術創新發展的各類指標，我們會發現，在粗放式發展模式走到盡頭的同時，中國創新發展模式已經嶄露頭角：一是專利申請大幅度提升，於2013年達到257.7萬，增速爲15.9%，佔世界總數的32.1%，居世界第一；二是R&D經費支出突破低水平閥值，於2014年達到GDP的2.09%，增速達12.4%，進入高速度、中等強度階段；三是技術市場活躍程度大幅度提升，2013年技術市場交易額達到7469億元，增速達到16%；四是高技術產品出口大幅增長，總額達到6603億美元，佔出口總額的30%；五是國外發表的科技論文在2013年已接近30萬篇，邁入世界科技論文大國的行列。六是中國擁有世界最龐大的科學技術研究人員。上述這些參數說明，只要進一步進行科技體制改革和鼓勵各類創新創業活動，中國技術創新紅利必將逐步實現。“中國製造”開始向“中國創新”轉型，從勞動力密集型製造業向知識密集產業過渡。

Sixth, the opportunity in major upgrade and planning an upgrading version of China's economy. China's economy has shown the symbols of overall upgrading under the multiple influences including market, technology and human resources. For one, the consumption behavior has shown substantial upgrading as per capita GDP drew close to $8, industrialized-style consumption that centers on basic needs of food, clothing, housing and traffic in the past 30 years begins to shift to post-industrialized consumption that features high-end finished product and service.
第六,大升級與構建升級版中國經濟的機遇。在市場、技術、人力等多方面的作用下，中國經濟開始出現全面升級的勢頭：一是在人均GDP接近8000美元時，消費開始出現大幅度升級，開始從過去30年的以吃穿住行爲主體的工業化消費轉向以高端製成品和服務消費爲主的後工業化消費。

For the other, driven by the demand, the industry has started a major shift from manufacturing to service sector, from labor intensive industry to technology intensive sectors. An upgrading version of China's economy is taking shape.
二是產業在需求拉動下，開始大幅度由製造業轉向服務業、由勞動密集型產業轉向知識與技術密集型產業。中國升級版經濟的雛形開始顯現。

Seventh, the opportunity in major opening-up and global layout of China's economy. The overall elevation of China's economic power and the change in layout of global economy because of the 2008 financial crisis grant China an unprecedented opportunity to carry out major opening-up and global layout. First, China begins to shift from the "era of exporting commodities" to the higher level of "capital export". The direct investment in overseas market is rising substantially, with major increases in overseas mergers and average growth rate surpassed 30 percent, as the FDI in overseas market surpassed $100 billion.
第七,大開放與中國經濟全球佈局的機遇。中國經濟實力的全面提升以及2008年國際金融危機帶來的全球經濟格局的變化給予了中國前所未有的進行大開放和全球佈局的機遇。一是中國開始從“商品輸出時代”轉向更爲高級的“資本輸出時代”，對外的FDI高速增長，海外併購突飛猛進，其平均增速超過30%，對外投資總量2014年已突破1000億美元。

Second, the set-up of regional free trade zone radiates the related areas during the process of opening-up. Third, centered on the "One Belt and One Road" project, a full integration will be carried out between China's spatial strategy and opening-up a will form new international partnership through links and communication.
二是以區域性自由貿易區的構建全面強化中國開放的板塊效應；三是以“一帶一路”爲核心展開中國空間戰略與開放戰略全面對接，並通過互聯互通打造中國新的國際合作格局。

Fourth, the setup of the world's financial institutes including the New development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund breaks the industry landscape dominated by Europe and the United States. These developments expand China's space in resources distribution and its profitability mode, and will bring China to a new stage of development.
四是以金磚銀行、亞洲基礎設施投資銀行、絲路基金等國際金融機構的構建，打破歐美一統國際金融的格局。這些拓展有效擴張了中國資源配置的空間以及盈利模式，必將把中國發展帶入新階段。

For sure, to secure the above seven opportunities and transfer all strategic chances into real growth and development, we need to tackle effectively all kinds of problems and challenges that the "new normal" faces. We need to roll out a system that adapts to the next-round of economic development on the back of full and deepened reforms.
當然，要很好把握上述七大機遇，將各種戰略機遇轉化爲真正的增長和發展，這不僅需要我們有效解決“新常態”面臨的各種問題和挑戰，同時還需要我們在全面深化改革的基礎上構建出適合下一輪經濟發展的制度體系。

Vocabulary：

integrate: 使結合

national rejuvenation: 民族復興

dividend: 紅利

作者：中國人民大學校長 陳雨露