年中國經濟發展的十個預言
China has recently made majordecisions about its economic future. On November 15, 2013, China announceddramatic new social and economic policies contemplating much greater relianceon market forces than it has in the past and inviting private-sectorparticipation and foreign competition in industries long previously controlledby the central government. It also relaxed its one-child policy, openingthe country and its people to vast new opportunities and inspiring new hopes anddreams.
中國最近正在進行大規模的經濟改革。 2013年11月15日，中國推出了一系列以市場經濟爲導向的社會和經濟上的改革政策，在一些國有經濟中引入了私有經濟參與和國際競爭。同時一胎化政策放鬆，爲中國和中國人民帶來了更多的機會，激發了希望和夢想。Xi Jinping and other leadershave made it clear that China is willing to accept a slower growth pace if thiswill allow for a more sustainable, consumer-driven expansion of its prognosticators are quick to conclude that China’s economy will soonsignificantly slow down, especially because China’s economy has sputteredfollowing prior instances when the nation’s leaders have effected suchfundamental economic reforms (such as in 1978 and 1993).
習及一些領導人員已經明確指出，中國將會進行可持續發展、內需爲依託的經濟轉型，爲此中國可以忍受稍微慢一些的增長速度。於是一些預言家馬上就下出結論，認爲中國經濟會因而立即大幅減速。特別是中國曾經有過這樣的先例。在1978到1993年中國領導人進行改革開放，然而在政策施行的最初階段中國經濟曾經遭遇不穩定。But we at The BostonConsulting Group believe that the current dip in China’s growth will not endureand that, under Xi’s leadership, China’s economy is destined to continuegrowing at a rapid clip. In fact, we are confident last week’s reforms willcontribute mightily to China’s growth between now and 2020. We stand by our base case forecast that China will deliver$4 trillion in growth over the next decade and combine with India to deliver a$10 trillion prize — an economic powerhouse driven by booming middle classconsumption and growing overall optimism. No one can perfectly forecastthe future … and in our book we describe scenarios where growthslows. But we remain optimistic and positive about China’s future.
但是我們波士士頓波士頓諮詢集團不認爲中國本次改革會導致中國經濟不穩定。我們相信中國經濟在習主席的領導下會持續高速增長。我們相信上個星期的改革（三中全會）會確保中國經濟從現在一直增長到（至少）2020年。根據我們已掌握的資料，我們預測中國經濟在未來10年會增加4萬億美金(而書中說是6.4萬億。2012中國GDP爲8.3萬億美金)。如果加上印度，亞洲兩大國未來的增長總量會達到10萬億美金。在此期間，中產階級會迅速膨脹，進而增強對經濟增長的樂觀態度。當然，沒有人能完美地預測未來，在我們的近期的一本關於中國和印度經濟發展的書中（《Trillion Prize:Captivating the Newly Affluent in China and India》），我們也描述了一些經濟增長緩慢的例子。不過總體上我們還是對中國的未來保持樂觀態度。
Here are our top 10expectations for China in 2014:
如下是我們對中國2014年的10個預測1. China’s leadershipwill ignite the capital economy, funding an aggressive growth program withmajor infrastructure investments to support urban development, including hugeallotments for housing, schools, roads, and more.
中國領導人會刺激國有經濟。資助更多的擴張性增長項目，比如用以支持城鎮化發展的基礎建設的投資，包括大量的房屋、學校、公路等方面的建設。2. The new one childplus policy will substantially raise the birth rate, contributing up to 2million new children to the 2014 economy, a 15 percent one-year lift that willonly further boost consumer morale and spirit.
新的計劃生育政策將會一定程度地刺激生育率。2014年將會有2百萬新生兒童。這意味着1年就產生了15%的增長，這將會在未來進一步增強消費者信心。3. The government bothlocal and national will invest in more technology-driven sectors, includingadvanced agriculture, transportation, medicine and other sectors. Thisinitiative will be aimed squarely at improving China’s productivity andmanufacturing competitiveness. There will be a national effort aimed atachieving quality, first-time yield and ensuring “productivity driven” globalcompetitiveness.
中國中央和地方政府會對技術升級方面投入更多的經費。 包括現代化農業、運輸、醫療等方面。這些積極的投資將會進一步提高中國生產和製造業的競爭能力。這將是一次國家行爲，目的是爲了推動提高產品質量和產品合格率以及以提升產品主導的全球競爭力。4. China will continueefforts to build out C-9 (the top nine universities in China) in the form ofmore than $1 billion new investments in major campuses. Funds will becommitted to attract top faculty, build state-of-the-art facilities, andrecruit the very best students. China will lock into a global war forintelligence, education, and skill.
中國投資10億美金用以將進一步打造C9大學（中國最好的9所大學）。 經費將會主要用來吸引頂級的教職人員，建造世界一流的教學設施，和招募一流的聲源。中國將會國際智力、教育和技能的人才大戰中逐鹿。5. The top 300bureaucrats will rally behind Xi’s reforms and these bold new programs, backingthe central government while bringing these ambitions to their provincialgovernments and setting parallel growth goals at home. Detailed plans forreform and accelerated growth will be set, and then promptly executed, ingeographies across China. We expect the tier three and four markets torally again this year, growing faster than tier one and two cities.
習主席講會同300名智囊官員一起制定新的改革方案並協同省級政府制定增長目標。關於刺激增長的細節方案將會逐漸制定出來，並在中國迅速執行。我們認爲明年中國的三線四線城市的市場增長速度會快於一線二線城市的增長。6. China will also soonmake further announcements regarding affordable housing and more accessiblehealthcare. The country still needs 75 million more $75,000 housing unitsand it will begin breaking ground on them, in earnest, in 2014. Theseinvestments, particularly in health care, will effectively become self-funded,allowing average Chinese consumers to consider saving less, and spending more. It will drive longevity and years of productive employment.
中國會很快宣佈一系列的關於房價調控和醫療保險的措施。在2014年，中國仍然需要建造7500萬間超過7萬5千美金的房產。這方面的投資，特別是醫療方面，使得普通中國消費者開始進入少存錢多花錢的消費習慣，進而促進內需，最終促進長期的就業增加。7. Big anti-corruptionprograms will be accelerated. We expect to see increased prosecutions,from approximately 140,000 per annum today to more than 200,000 in 2014. Thisaggressive push for integrity and accountability will set the country on astrong new course. Success will become much more about what you know ratherthan who you know.
反腐力度將會被加強。2014年中國反腐調查案件將會從如今的14萬件，增加到超過20萬件。這將使得中國更強大。 如果反腐能夠成功，將會使中國更關注於做事，而不是搞人事關係。8. Across the world,China will continue to flex its might with acquisitions and transactions. Theone million Chinese in Africa will continue their efforts to lock up naturalresources.
在全球，中國將會進一步進行併購和交易。在非洲，1百萬中國人在努力獲取自然資源。9. The Chinese militarywill demand and receive vastly expanded investments in the form of advancedaircraft and ships.
中國的軍隊會獲得更多的投入，從而增加更爲先進的飛機和戰艦。10. China watchers inthe United States will continue to postulate China’s declining growth rate inthe face of evidence that it is stable at over 7%. China will grow fasterin 2014 than in 2013.
我們認爲中國2014年的經濟成長會高速增加，增速會超過2013。而在美國的“中國問題專家”們，在面對中國穩定的超過7%的年增長率鐵據之後，還會堅持唱衰中國的經濟。As China clears the way forfreer markets and increased foreign participation, fortifies the infrastructureof its burgeoning cities, and creates the social conditions for middle classfamilies to grow in size, confidence, and spending power, watch for continuedgrowth in the world’s second biggest economy in 2014 and beyond.
中國正在清除自由市場上的障礙，促進國際參與，並增強了對發展中城市基礎建設，改善社會條件並壯大中產階層，展現信心和國力。基於此，我們認爲中國作爲世界第二大經濟體在2014年之後還會繼續高速發展
