韓國部署薩德影響重大 民衆抗議無效
South Korea’s plan to deploy a US-built missile shield furnishes it with a crucial level of defence against Kim Jong Un, a capricious dictator whose nuclear armed North Korean regime releases mocked-up videos of Seoul being hit by Pyongyang’s rocket attacks. But while the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system (Thaad) is a legitimate defensive option for South Korea, it is also seen as a threat by China, with whom Seoul has been assiduously improving relations in recent years.
韓國部署美製反導系統的計劃，爲韓提供了一種防範朝鮮反覆無常的獨裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)打擊的重要手段。擁有核武裝的朝鮮政權，發佈了數段模擬首爾遭朝方火箭襲擊的視屏。不過，雖然對韓國來說“末段高空區域防禦系統”（THAAD，簡稱：薩德）是個正當的防禦選擇，但它也被中國視爲一種威脅。而近些年來，首爾方面一直在努力改善對華關係。
China’s position is not without justification. Thaad’s radar systems, though ostensibly pointed toward the threat from the North, are also capable of looking deep into Chinese territory, thus providing Seoul — and potentially its ally, Washington — with an important source of intelligence. In addition, Beijing is worried that Thaad could form part of a broad regional American missile shield that would constrain China’s strategic ambitions and room for manoeuvre.
中國的立場不無道理。薩德的雷達系統雖然表面上指向來自朝鮮的威脅，但它也有能力窺探中國大片領土的情況，從而爲首爾——可能還有其盟友華盛頓——提供重要的情報來源。此外，北京方面還擔心薩德可能成爲一個廣泛的區域性美國反導系統的組成部分，制約中國的戰略抱負以及迴旋餘地。
While both South Korea and China have a case, it must be recognised that Seoul’s imperative for self-defence against an increasingly unhinged regime in Pyongyang is the greater. No country should be denied such legitimate defence needs.
雖然韓國和中國各有其道理，但必須認識到的一點是，韓方防禦日益反覆無常的平壤政權的迫切性要更大一些。任何國家都不應被剝奪這種正當防衛需求。
China’s leaders must also recognise their share of responsibility for the stand-off. Since taking office in 2013, South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, has gone to great lengths to court China — her country’s biggest export market but also the sole ally and principal underwriter of the bellicose North Korean regime.
中國領導人還必須認識到，他們對這種對峙負有一定責任。韓國總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)自2013年上臺以來一直不遺餘力地向中國示好。中國不僅是韓國最大的出口市場，也是好戰的朝鮮政權的唯一盟友和主要靠山。
Her outreach to Beijing has largely been met by one-sided demands in a pattern that has been repeated in much of China’s foreign relations. Beijing’s reluctance to rein in its recalcitrant client state has left Ms Park with diminished options and in effect forced her to turn to the Americans for help. Washington’s past willingness to show sensitivity to Beijing’s concerns has been sorely tested by the latter’s belligerent moves in the region, particularly in the South China Sea.
朴槿惠對中國的主動接觸大多隻換來一堆單向要求，中國在其許多對外關係中都重複着這種模式。北京方面不願約束其桀驁不馴的附庸國，令朴槿惠的選擇越來越少，實際上迫使她轉向美國尋求幫助。而華盛頓以往對北京方面的關切表現出理解的意願，已受到後者在該地區、尤其是在南中國海好戰之舉的嚴峻考驗。
The more China seeks to assert its dominance in the region, the more likely it is to push neighbouring countries into closer military ties with the US. This has been happening for years but it is accelerating as China’s leaders appear to view any accommodation as a sign of weakness and an opportunity to push their claims harder.
中國越是試圖確立其在該地區的主導地位，就越有可能促使鄰國與美國結成更緊密的軍事聯繫。這種趨勢已存在多年，但目前正在加速，因爲中國領導人似乎將一切遷就中國的舉措都視爲一種示弱的信號和更有力推進中方主張的機會。
If Beijing responds to Seoul’s deployment of Thaad with an economic boycott or other punitive measures, as many in South Korea now fear, it would be a further strategic miscalculation. Such a move could promote closer relations between America’s two regional allies, South Korea and Japan, overcoming antipathies in Seoul that stem from the colonial period and frustrating Beijing’s longstanding policy of divide and rule.
如果北京方面對韓國部署“薩德”報以經濟制裁或其他懲罰措施——韓國許多人士目前有這種擔憂——那將是進一步的戰略誤判。此舉可能會促使美國的兩個地區盟友——韓國與日本——加強關係，令首爾方面克服源於殖民時期的對日本的厭惡，挫敗北京方面長期以來的分而治之政策。
Following the historic ruling by an international tribunal that negated many of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, this is a moment for all sides to realise that strategic tensions have escalated to dangerous levels.
在一個國際仲裁庭作出歷史性裁決、判定中國在南中國海的許多領土主張無效後，各方現在應意識到戰略緊張局勢已升級到危險的水平。
The time has come for Washington and Beijing to begin serious negotiations that seek to accommodate the concerns of the US and its allies while recognising the legitimate aspirations of the region’s rising superpower.
華盛頓和北京是時候展開認真的談判了，一方面要照顧美國及其盟友的關切，另一方面也應承認該地區正在崛起的超級大國的合理抱負。
The millions that died in the Korean war in the early 1950s serve as a harrowing reminder of the costs of strategic inflexibility between great powers. The longer the US and China wait to negotiate in the spirit of compromise, the less able they may become to retreat from a path that risks leading to military confrontation.
20世紀50年代初的朝鮮戰爭造成上百萬人喪生，這一慘痛的事實提醒人們，大國之間缺乏戰略靈活性會造成多大的代價。美國和中國應儘早本着妥協的精神進行談判，雙方拖得越晚，就越難以從可能通向軍事對抗的道路上後撤。
