廣交會見證中國出口商憂鬱心情大綱

A recent surge in the price of garlic, the result of bad weather and fervent speculation, ought to be good news for Chinese exporters like E-Sunrise group.

惡劣天氣與狂熱投機導致近期大蒜價格暴漲，這對像E-Sunrise集團這樣的中國出口商來說應該是好消息。

But Gong Yiqiang, business manager for the Jiangsu province-based agricultural company, says sales are down 30 per cent so far this year because of a drop in global demand.

但這家江蘇農業企業的業務經理鞏義強（音）表示，由於全球需求下滑，今年迄今銷售額下降了30%。

“We mostly export to Latin America and Southeast Asia and countries there are having problems,” he says, highlighting the circular connections that are weakening world trade.

他表示：“我們主要出口拉丁美洲、東南亞地區，而這些地區的國家正遇到麻煩。”他強調，這種循環關係正在削弱世界貿易。

The slowdown of China’s long construction boom has hit commodity-producing nations like Indonesia and Brazil particularly hard, in turn shrinking their appetite for made-in-China products from garlic to jeans.

中國長期建築投資熱的放緩對印度尼西亞、巴西等大宗商品生產國造成了尤爲嚴重的衝擊，這反過來減少了他們對從大蒜到牛仔褲的中國產品的需求。

Beyond these troubled emerging markets, global demand remains tepid, with Europe struggling but some signs of a recovery in the US.

除了這些陷入困境的新興市場，全球需求也依然疲軟，歐洲在苦苦掙扎，美國則出現了一些復甦跡象。

So although Chinese government data show a tentative pick-up in manufacturing over the past couple of months, buoyed by easy credit, E-Sunrise and fellow exporters attending the nation’s biggest trade show remain concerned about the future.

因此，雖然中國官方數據顯示，在寬鬆信貸的推動下，過去兩個月製造業展現出初步回暖，但參加中國最大規模貿易展的E-Sunrise及其他出口商仍對未來表示擔憂。

More than a dozen factory executives interviewed at the twice-yearly Canton Fair in Guangzhou all warned of difficult trading conditions, particularly in Europe. A few said they had seen a modest improvement in US demand this year but not enough to offset the weakness elsewhere.

在廣州每年舉行兩屆的廣交會(Canton Fair)上，接受採訪的十幾位企業高管都對艱難的貿易環境發出警告，特別是在歐洲。他們中一些人表示，已經看到今年美國的需求略有提升，但這不足以抵消其他地區的疲軟。

With buyers coming from all over the world and thousands of manufacturers offering everything from buttons and zips to food products and electronics, the Canton Fair is a barometer of the state of global demand and of China’s important manufacturing industry.

匯聚了來自世界各地的採購商以及成千上萬家提供從鈕釦、拉鍊到食品、電子產品的製造商，廣交會可謂反映全球需求和中國重要製造業狀況的晴雨表。

More than 185,000 international traders attended the fair, which ran for three weeks before closing on Thursday — an increase of less than 1 per cent compared with the fair in spring last year. The value of deals agreed also rose very slightly, to $28bn.

本屆爲期3周的廣交會於週四閉幕，參會的境外採購商逾18.5萬人，比去年的春交會增加不到1%。成交額也僅略有上升，至280億美元。

Xu Bing, vice-chairman of the Canton Fair, said that despite the stabilisation, the outlook for global demand was still “weak”, with China’s factories facing an “uncertain and unstable” future.

中國對外貿易中心副主任徐兵表示，雖然保持了穩定，但全球需求前景依然“疲軟”，中國工廠面臨“不確定、不穩定”的未來。

Exporters say they remain under pressure to cut prices and minimum order sizes to secure contracts.

中國出口商表示，他們仍面臨通過降價及壓低最小訂單規模以獲得合同的壓力。

Xiangxing group, a luggage maker from Fujian province, slashed wholesale prices of its business backpacks from $10 to $7 each last year but is still finding it difficult to win big orders.

去年，祥興福建箱包集團(Xiangxing)將商務揹包的批發價從每個10美元降至7美元，但仍發現難以獲得大訂單。

“Our minimum order size is 500 pieces but potential customers are afraid in these conditions so they only want to buy 100 or 200,” says Lin Dan, a salesman for the company. “That’s hard for us to justify because we are a scale business.”

“我們的最小訂單規模是500個，但出於對當前形勢的擔憂，潛在客戶只想購買100或200個，”祥興箱包銷售員林丹（音）說，“這讓我們很難接單，因爲我們做的是規模業務。”

It is equally tough for garment producers such as Orient International, which supplies international brands like Zara and Hennes & Mauritz.

對東方國際(Orient International)等服裝生產商而言，處境同樣艱難。東方國際爲Zara、H&M(Hennes & Mauritz)等國際品牌供貨。

Leila Ma, a sales executive at the Shanghai-based group, says falling profits at H&M were a bad sign for the whole industry.

這家上海公司的銷售主管Leila Ma表示，H&M 利潤下降對於整個行業是一個不好的徵兆。

“When even a giant ship is sinking slowly, it will affect everyone,” she says. “Some very cheap brands like Primark area still doing well but their prices are so low that it is difficult for us to make money producing for them.
她說：“連一艘巨輪都開始慢慢下沉時，每個人都會受到影響。一些非常便宜的品牌，比如Primark，情況仍然很好，但它們的價格實在太低了，爲他們供貨很難讓我們賺到錢。”

Amid the overall gloom, there were some bright spots.

不過在一片慘淡中，還是有一些亮點。

Executives say sportswear and equipment is still doing relatively well because of the growing focus in many countries on health and fitness.

高管們表示，運動服和運動裝備表現仍然相對不錯，因爲許多國家都越來越重視健康和健身。

“People are cutting back on jumpers but they are still willing to spend a lot of money on their Nike shoes,” says Ms Ma.

Leila Ma說：“人們削減了套頭衫的開支，但仍願意花大價錢買耐克(Nike)鞋。”

Lin Hongbing, who owns a backpack factory in Fujian province, is tapping into the trend with a range of waterproof bags designed for joggers, hikers and campers.

福建一家揹包工廠的老闆林紅冰（音）利用這一趨勢，推出一系列爲慢跑、徒步旅行和露營設計的防水包。

She says that sales of her Osah-branded backpacks are rising by more than 35 per cent every year, albeit from a small base, driven by demand in Europe and, particularly, the US.

林紅冰表示，在歐洲、特別是美國需求的帶動下，她的Osah牌揹包的銷售額正以35%以上的增幅逐年上升（儘管基數較小）。

“To succeed in this market you don’t necessarily need to be too creative but you need to be specialised,” she adds.

她說：“要在這個市場上取得成功，你不需要太多創意，但你需要專業。”

Several other manufacturers also say that they have seen signs of improvement in the US.

其他幾家製造商也表示他們已看到美國市場好轉的跡象。

Ceng Jun, sales director at Shenzhen-based Comix, which sells stationery and office supplies to the likes of Staples, Tescoand Walmart, is hoping that sales will grow slightly this year because of the US recovery.

深圳齊心集團(Comix)主要向史泰博(Staples)、樂購(Tesco)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等銷售文具和辦公用品，該公司銷售總監曾軍（音）希望在美國經濟復甦的帶動下，今年銷售額能有所增長。

Roger Park, president of Hua Jia Silk, which sells fabric and garments to international fashion brands such as Ted Baker, Zara and All Saints, says that “while last year was pretty bad, we expect this year to be better because sales are up in the US and Europe”.

華佳絲綢(Hua Jia Silk)是Ted Baker、Zara和All Saints等國際時裝品牌的面料及服裝供貨商，該公司總裁Roger Park表示：“雖然去年很糟糕，但我們預計今年會好轉，因爲美國和歐洲的銷售額都呈上升趨勢。”

But, as he rushes off to pitch to a potential buyer, he adds that it is still a struggle to survive.

但他在趕着去招呼一位潛在買家時匆匆表示仍要爲生存而戰。

“Our labour costs keep rising so we have to do what we can to cut expenses elsewhere and find new customers willing to pay more for higher quality products,” he says.

他說：“我們的勞動力成本持續上漲，所以我們必須儘可能地在其他地方削減開支，並找到願意花更多錢買更高質量產品的新客戶。”